Clear resistance and support to watch on Hang Seng index

The Hang Seng Index is coiling. With price trapped between 25,800 resistance and 25,000 support, a massive move is brewing for the HSI.

Key levels to watch

• Bullish: A daily close above 25,800 opens a fast rally to 27,047.
• Bearish: Losing the 24,800 floor signals a slide toward 24,087.

As global liquidity shifts, will the Hang Seng see a year-end “Santa Rally” or a January dip? Watch the 25,000 level; this structural pivot will determine the trend for early 2026.

Key resistance zones (Where rallies are capped)

Note: We used Volume Profile and anchored vWAPs to highlight price zones where the most trading has occurred since April 2025. These high-volume areas often act as key support or resistance levels.

25,800 – 25,900

• vWAP + POC of the decline since November.
• Every push into this zone has stalled.
• Sellers are clearly active here.

If price accepts above this zone (daily close), upside opens quickly toward value expansion.

27,047 – VAH of the 2025 Rally

• Value Area High of the entire 2025 advance
• This is the real upside target, Hang Seng needs to break this level to keep expanding.

Key support zones (Where buyers must defend)

24,800 – 25,000

• High Volume Node.
• VWAP of the rally.
• Psychological round number.
• This is the structural bull support.

As long as price holds here, this remains a bullish consolidation phase.

24,087 – VAL of the 2025 Rally

• If HVN fails, this becomes the next downside magnet.
• Acceptance below here signals severe weakness in the rally.

What the structure is saying

• Lower highs have been pressing into vWAP resistance.
• Higher lows still hold value support.
• That equals coiling energy, not weakness.

However, this resolves one of two ways:

Bullish Resolution

• Break and acceptance above 25,800.
• Fast rotation toward 27,000 VAH.
• Typical year-end liquidity behaviour supports this path.

Bearish Resolution

• Failure + acceptance below 24,800.
• Rotation toward VAL ~24,100.
• This would likely happen early January, not late December.

The major caveat

The vWAP of the entire rally remains untested. Large psychological levels like 25,000 HKD have a strong tendency to be revisited.

If price dips into this zone but quickly reclaims it, a fast recovery and squeeze higher would be structurally consistent with this chart.

China-specific fundamental backdrop

China policy remains supportive but measured. Property stress has eased without turning into a growth engine, while global liquidity conditions quietly favour Asian equities. With sentiment still cautious, fundamentals are neutral-to-supportive and leave room for upside if price confirms.

Bottom ling

Fundamentals won’t push HSI higher on their own, but they won’t block a breakout either. Price confirmation is still the trigger.