Trading Moment: BTC faces a test of the $70,000 mark; Trend Research's liquidation price is mainly concentrated around $1,800.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

The partial US government shutdown, previously stemming from immigration enforcement disputes, was temporarily resolved with Trump's signing of the appropriations bill. However, the Department of Homeland Security's funding will only last until February 13, leaving uncertainty for future negotiations. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Governor Mirren has resigned as chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. Geopolitically, tensions between the US and Iran remain high. The US military shot down an Iranian drone that approached the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, and reports surfaced of Iranian speedboats harassing US oil tankers. Although Trump stated that negotiations are ongoing, White House Press Secretary Levitt emphasized that military options remain in place should diplomacy fail.

Duan Shaofu, deputy secretary-general of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, revealed that China is studying the inclusion of copper concentrate in its national strategic reserves to address supply pressures and enhance its bargaining power in the industry chain. Funds flowed into safe-haven assets, and although spot gold once corrected by more than 20%, falling to a low of $4,402, the price has now rebounded and broken through the $5,000/ounce mark, with an intraday increase of up to 2.3%. Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast that gold will reach $5,400 by December 2026, Deutsche Bank maintains its target price of $6,000, and JPMorgan Chase remains bullish on gold, raising its year-end target price for 2026 to $6,300. JPMorgan Chase believes that despite recent market volatility caused by the nomination of the new Federal Reserve chairman, the long-term upward trend of gold remains unchanged. The core driving force behind the rise in gold prices comes from the continued demand for gold by central banks and investors' allocation to diversify their portfolios. Compared to gold, the bank holds a more cautious attitude towards the short-term prospects of silver. After a plunge of over 40%, the silver market has rebounded by more than 20%, triggering huge losses for retail investors. Retail investment in silver ETFs hit a record high in January, but leveraged ETFs such as AGQ plummeted by 60%. In the domestic silver investment market, the Guotou Silver LOF has experienced three consecutive days of limit-down trading, with its premium rate falling back to 64.6%.

Hit hard by AI technology, the S&P North American Software Index plunged 15% in January, its biggest monthly drop since 2008. Anthropic's launch of AI tools further exacerbated market panic, leading to the worst sell-off in software stocks since April of last year. Thomson Reuters (TRI) and Legalzoom fell by more than 20% at one point, as investors worried about the weakening of traditional software companies' competitive advantages. Jefferies analysts called it "SaaS doomsday," while Morgan Stanley analyst Toni Kaplan pointed out that this signifies intensified competition in the industry. Although Palantir bucked the trend with a 7% gain, private lending companies like Blue Owl, which have software exposure, suffered losses. UBS strategists even warned that if AI is aggressively disruptive, the US private lending default rate could soar to 13%.

As gold and silver rebounded, Bitcoin continued its decline, briefly falling below $73,000 and erasing all gains since Trump's re-election. David Duong, Global Head of Investment Research at Coinbase, stated that the prevailing narrative of a "gold rally driving Bitcoin up" is flawed. Adam also demonstrated through the Engle-Granger test that there is no cointegration relationship between Bitcoin and gold. Santiment data shows that while retail investors are panicking over Bitcoin below $60,000, this could provide an opportunity for a short-term easing rebound. Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, pointed out that 46% of Bitcoin supply is already at a loss, and the price could potentially fall to around $58,000, near the 200-week moving average, or even test the realized price of $56,000. However, he believes this is typically a good entry point for long-term investors. Compass Point analysts believe the bear market is entering its final stage, with the bottom likely between $60,000 and $68,000; while Killa predicts the bottom will appear in Q3, planning to buy in batches between $69,000 and $45,000. Sykodelic believes this is a mid-term top and a huge bear market trap, and is optimistic about a subsequent rebound. Nevertheless, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes the “crypto winter” is nearing its end and the market is closer to recovery than further decline.

The Ethereum market is also facing significant deleveraging pressure, with prices nearing $2,100 and funding rates turning negative, indicating extreme market panic. On-chain data shows that Trend Research has reduced its ETH holdings by $352 million since February 1st, repaying loans to reduce leverage. The liquidation price range for its remaining borrowed positions is concentrated between $1,685 and $1,855, primarily around $1,800. A drop in price into this range would pose a liquidation risk. Ali Charts analysis indicates that Ethereum's historical bottom typically forms below the 0.80 MVRV band, around $1,959. Despite the pessimistic short-term indicators, Trend Research founder Yi Lihua remains firmly bullish on a future bull market, maintaining his expectation that ETH will reach over $10,000 and believing that now is the best time to buy spot. Cointelegraph analysis points out that while negative futures funding rates are usually a buy signal, their effectiveness may be significantly reduced in the current context of a weak US macroeconomy and a tech stock correction.

In the altcoin market, Geoff Kendrick, head of cryptocurrency research at Standard Chartered Bank, lowered his 2026 price forecast for SOL to $250, but remains optimistic about its long-term potential, predicting it could reach $2,000 by 2030. From a technical perspective, Ali Charts warns that if SOL breaks below support, the next target could be $74.11 or even $50.18; however, some analysts point out that SOL may have formed a V-shaped reversal bottom around $100, and if it can recover the 20-day EMA at $106, it could rebound to the $120-$150 range, or even rise to $260 in the long term. Furthermore, the TVL and daily trading volume of the Solana network have recently reached new highs.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT, February 4)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $76,532 (down 12.69% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $75.98 billion.

• Ethereum: $2,278 (down 23.3% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $48.54 billion.

• Fear of Greed Index: 14 (Extreme Panic)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1.75 sat/vB, ETH: 0.02 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 59.2%, ETH 11.8%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: BTC, ETH, XRP, BIRD, ZIL

• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 9.04% / 50.96%

• Sector Performance: Most crypto stocks retreated, with only DePIN, AI, and SocialFi sectors remaining relatively resilient.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 123,352 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $515 million. This included $205 million in BTC liquidations, $178 million in ETH liquidations, and $20.87 million in SOL liquidations.

3. ETF Flows (as of February 3)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$272 million

• Ethereum ETF: +$14.0551 million, the first net inflow after three days of net outflows.

• XRP ETF: +19.46 million USD

• SOL ETF: +$1.24 million

4. Today's Outlook

• Aster will launch its sixth phase of the buyback program on February 4th: up to 80% of daily platform fees will be used for ASTER buybacks.

• Binance Alpha listed Warden Protocol (WARD) on February 4th.

• The Tether-backed Stable mainnet was upgraded to v1.2.0 on February 4th.

• YO Protocol announces token economics: 8% allocated to the genesis airdrop, with applications opening on February 5th.

• MagicBlock announces $BLOCK token economics, pre-sale to begin February 5th.

• Rainbow will conduct RNBW token TGE on February 5th.

• XDC Network (XDC) will unlock approximately 841 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on February 5th, representing approximately 5.00% of the circulating supply, with a value of approximately $29.3 million.

Today's top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization saw the following largest gains: Cosmos up 5.2%, World Liberty Financial up 4.3%, PAX Gold up 3.9%, Tether Gold up 3.7%, and Monero up 3.2%.

5. Hot News

• Anthropic plans to allow employees to sell shares at a valuation of $350 billion.

• A whale sold 5,076 BTC within 8 hours, incurring a loss of approximately $118 million.

• Ark Invest increased its holdings in companies such as Bitmine, Coinbase, and Circle.

• U.S. stocks closed lower across the board, with Coinbase and Circle among those falling by more than 4%.

• Trump signs funding bill, ending partial government shutdown.

• The real-life inspiration for the protagonist of "The Big Short": Bitcoin crash may trigger a $1 billion gold and silver sell-off.

• Chiliz will launch a US-based fan token, with 10% of the proceeds going towards buying back and burning CHZ tokens.

• Ark Invest has been buying up crypto stocks such as Circle and Bitmine, purchasing over $24 million worth in total.

• The US reduced tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%, and India agreed to stop buying Russian oil and switch to buying US oil.