Bitcoin Catches $68K Relief Rally, But Analysts Warn the Bear Isn't Dead Yet
Bitcoin reclaimed $68,000 on Wednesday, posting its first meaningful bounce after weeks of relentless selling that saw the asset lose nearly half its value from October's all-time highs.
At time of writing, BTC was trading at $67,970, up 2.8% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data.
The rally extended across crypto markets, with total market cap climbing to $2.42 trillion. Ethereum outperformed with a 6% gain to $2,046, while Solana rose 6.4% to $87.82.
What's Driving the Bounce
Several macro tailwinds converged to lift risk assets.
A weaker U.S. dollar following President Trump's State of the Union address provided support, as did a record-setting rally in Asian equities — particularly AI-linked chipmakers ahead of NVIDIA's blowout Q4 earnings. The chip giant reported revenue of $68.1 billion, crushing estimates and sending its stock up 3% after hours.
Markets also took comfort from Trump's tariff plans landing softer than initially feared, while spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $257 million in net inflows on Tuesday, per data published by Farside Investors.
The Bearish Case
Despite the relief, conviction remains thin. Bitcoin is still down roughly 46% from its October 2025 peak of $126,021. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at 11 — deep in "extreme fear" territory.
Onchain metrics flash caution. Glassnode analysts noted that Bitcoin's Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has fallen below 1, signaling a shift into an "excess loss-realization regime" — a condition that has historically persisted for six months or longer before recovering.
"The market likely hasn't bottomed yet," said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, speaking to CoinDesk. "Real capitulation is still ahead."
Bulls are eyeing a potential "double-bottom" formation, with the Feb. 5 crash lows serving as critical support. A sustained move above $72,000 would signal structural improvement; failure to hold current levels could open the door to another 25% decline.
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