'Off-the-charts' turnout in Democratic primary astounds analyst: 'Number is huge'

MS NOW's John Heilemann analyzed the state of the Democratic Party after an Illinois primary that saw left-wing candidates lose hotly contested races among a seemingly fired-up electorate.

"Morning Joe" host Joe Scarborough focused on 26-year-old newcomer Kat Abughazaleh, a left-wing influencer who centered her campaign on opposition to Israel's war in Gaza and promised to challenge the Democratic establishment, but ultimately fell short of Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss in a House race in the Chicago suburbs.

"Regardless of what you think of her politics and people are attacking her on all sides, Kat – and I will not mess up her last name, it starts with an A, I'll just call her Kat A. — had some of the most interesting commercials, and when I looked at them, I said, 'Okay, this is a good view into the future of campaigning in American politics," Scarborough said.

"John Heilemann, I heard you laugh. I know, you know, she started with a smear, an attack ad against herself, and here's somebody who just moved into the district recently, had been thrown around by ICE agents and protests, and nobody really gave her a chance to win, and she came very close to winning the Democratic primary and being a member of Congress in illinois 9, but the story of the night really was not just that progressives, a lot of progressives, lost. It was also the fact that AIPAC played such a huge role in tipping the scales."

The powerful pro-Israel group backed two winners but lost in two races where it spent the most, but its social media account boasted about taking down Abughazaleh, whom Heileman said had once worked for him on another project.

"Yeah, Kat Abughazaleh, who was a former employee of mine at The Recount, by the way," he said. "Super bright, super social media and digital media savvy. She is going to have a big future in Democratic politics if she wants to have it, whether you like her politics or not. I'm not endorsing candidates, I'm just saying she is young and smart and gets the way the world of media now works, and it took AIPAC doing what you just, what you just said, Joe.

"I think she would probably win that primary over the Evanston mayor, Daniel Biss, who is also a very progressive candidate. He's not, he's not a moderate by any means. I think she probably would have won that primary if it hadn't been, she got it on the negative side coming from AIPAC."

The big takeaway was voter enthusiasm, Heilemann said, which has been a recurring theme in special elections and Democratic primaries since Donald Trump won the 2024 election.

"The big, big headlines out of this primary is turnout for Democrats, again off the charts, rarely do you see a midterm primary that equals, as this one did, the turnout for the last time there was a competitive Democratic presidential primary, which was in 2020," Heilemann said.

"So that number is huge. We're seeing enthusiasm on the Democratic side that's completely off the charts."

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