War and Prediction Markets: Why Polymarket Traders Harassed an Israeli Journalist

An Israeli journalist reporting on the ongoing war between Israel and Iran has been caught in the crossfire of a disputed trade over a minor detail.

On March 10, The Times of Israel’s military correspondent, Emanuel Fabian, reported that a missile had struck the outskirts of Beit Shemesh, a city close to Jerusalem.

There were no casualties, no injuries, and no damage to homes in the area. There was nothing else to report. That is, until Polymarket gamblers began getting in touch to ask him, pushily, to change what he had already reported.

They wanted him to change the truth.

Table of Contents

• The news report
• The messages begin
• The detail in question
• The trade resolution
• War and prediction markets
• The legislative pushback

The news report

Fabian shared the short news story of a missile landing about 500 meters from homes on the outskirts of Beit Shemesh. There was a loud and forceful explosion when the missile made contact with the ground, alongside a video taken by a local of the impact.

Fabian shared the news on X, along with the video of the explosion, and contributed to that day’s live blog on The Times of Israel with the same information.

He wrote:

It was short and simple. No injuries or casualties to report.

The messages begin

On the same day, Fabian began getting contacted by irate bettors.

The bettors who lost that trade started to contact him via email and on X, flooding his LinkedIn and Telegram DMs, dogging his every digital footprint to demand a correction.

One email, in Hebrew from ‘Daneil’, read:

“Sorry for reaching out without a prior introduction, but I assume we will get to know each other well.

“I have an urgent request regarding the accuracy of your report on the missile attack on March 10. I would really appreciate a response if possible. There is an inaccurate report from you about the missile attack on March 10, and it’s causing a chain of errors.

“If you could reply to me tonight… you would be helping me, many others, and, of course, the State of Israel. And along the way, you would gain a good source.”

He received many more messages like this: passive-aggressive, patronising, and pushy.

The detail in question

These messengers all had one thing in common: They were asking Fabian to change a detail in his report. They pushed back against it being a missile that had struck the outskirts of Beit Shemesh. It was instead a fragment of a missile, they argued, which had impacted the ground.

That day, three other missiles from Iran had entered Israel, but all three had been intercepted. This one too, they told him, also broke up over the skies of Israel.

Responding to one of the messengers, Fabian explained why he would not change it his story:

“The footage also shows a massive explosion of hundreds of kilograms of explosives from the warhead. Normally, a fragment does not produce such an explosion.”

The trade resolution

Prediction markets like Polymarket rely on strict conditions and specific “resolution sources,” such as credible journalists or official reports, to decide who wins and loses.

The rules for the ‘Iran Strikes Israel On’ market stated:

By reporting that it was a missile that had struck an open area in Beit Shemesh, and not a fragment of one, Fabian provided the definitive evidence needed for the market to resolve to ‘Yes.’

For the traders who had bet on a ‘No’ outcome, arguing it was just intercepted shrapnel, this single sentence meant the complete liquidation of their positions.

Finishing his article in The Times of Israel, Fabian closed with a cautionary tone:

War and prediction markets

In just a few years, prediction markets have revolutionized online gambling. You can now bet on almost anything, and the practice is rapidly expanding beyond niche platforms.

Proponents argue there is a positive side to prediction markets. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Michael Selig recently defended them, claiming they “allow Americans to hedge real-world risks and provide the public with a vital check on our news media.”

However, the dark side of this industry is becoming impossible to ignore, or at least it is being exposed much more frequently.

There have been numerous documented cases of suspected insider trading on Polymarket, a semi-anonymous platform where users bet using cryptocurrency. 

For example, there was highly suspicious trading surrounding the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, where an anonymous user turned a $32,000 bet into a $400,000 profit just hours before the U.S. operation was announced. 

In another major scandal this February, Israel indicted an IDF reservist and a civilian for using highly classified military intelligence to place winning bets on Polymarket regarding the timing of Israel’s strikes on Iran.

Yet Polymarket leadership has defended the mechanics of the platform. CEO Shayne Coplan has previously argued that insiders “having an edge on the market is a good thing,” suggesting it “creates this financial incentive for people to go and divulge the information to the market.”

The legislative pushback

The ethical and security concerns surrounding these platforms have recently reached a boiling point in Washington, D.C. In March 2026, U.S. lawmakers introduced sweeping legislation aimed at completely outlawing wagers on human lives and global conflicts.

Two major bills are currently leading this charge:

• The DEATH BETS Act: Introduced by Rep. Mike Levin and Sen. Adam Schiff, this bill seeks to explicitly prohibit any CFTC-registered entity from listing contracts related to terrorism, assassination, war, or an individual’s death. As Rep. Levin stated, “Betting on war and death should be illegal… there are still gaping holes that allow traders to profit off death.”
• The BETS OFF Act: Unveiled by Sen. Chris Murphy and Rep. Greg Casar, this legislation targets what Murphy called “fundamentally corrupt markets.” The bill specifically aims to ban prediction markets from allowing users to bet on sensitive government operations if someone knows the outcome in advance, cracking down on the exact type of insider trading seen in the Maduro and IDF scandals.

With over half a billion dollars wagered on the timing of military strikes in Iran alone, Congress is moving to ensure that prediction platforms can no longer operate as a casino for global warfare.

You can read the full account of this story from journalist Emanuel Fabian’s point of view on The Times of Israel

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