XRP price risks drop to $1.10 as supply in profit drops to 17-month lows

XRP (XRP) is staring at a potential drop toward $1.10, as a decline in profitable supply suggests growing bearish momentum and a classic setup for new lows.

Key takeaways:

• XRP supply in profit has dropped to 43%, levels last seen in November 2024.

• Investors have continued selling their XRP holdings, realizing losses at $110 million per day.

• XRP rising wedge breakdown targets $1.10. 

XRP supply in profit drops below 50%

As of Tuesday, 43% of all XRP coins were in profit, levels last seen in November 2024, according to onchain data resource Glassnode.

Historically, the metric’s drop below 50% has signaled a transition from optimism to despair characterized by panic selling and high capitulation, as seen in the last stages of previous bear markets.

Related: XRP risk-reward improves as whale accumulation rises: Will price follow?

Between January and June 2022, for instance, XRP price dropped to $0.30 from over $0.75, a decline that coincided with XRP’s profitable supply falling to as low as 20% from just under 50%. A similar scenario was seen in 2018 when XRP price dropped another 70%, with the supply in profit going as low as 15%.

In fact, investors who accumulated XRP above $2 over the last 12 months “have been realizing losses at a pace of $20M–$110M/day since November 2025,” Glassnode added. 

In a Tuesday post on X, analyst Crypto Town Hall said this “reflects widespread holder drawdowns, often seen during late-stage corrections,” leading to sharp drops as holders continue realizing losses.

Additionally, the average wallets active on the XRP Ledger over the past year are down 41% on their investments.

“This is the lowest MVRV (Mean Value to Realized Value) for XRP traders since the FTX crash in November, 2022,” onchain data resource Santiment said in a Tuesday post on X, adding:

This means fresh selling could be coming as investors seek to cut their losses, a key ingredient in keeping the downtrend going toward the $1.10 target.

XRP rising wedge breakdown targets $1.10

XRP/USD is in the breakdown phase of a rising wedge on the daily time frame, a bearish pattern that forms when price compresses inside two upward-sloping trendlines after a sharp decline.

The price slipped below the wedge’s lower trend line at $1.37 on March 27 and is now attempting a typical post-breakdown retest near the 50-day simple moving average around $1.38. That area is acting as immediate resistance.

If XRP fails to reclaim the trendline and moving averages, the setup points to a deeper move toward the pattern’s measured target near $1.10, roughly 16% below the current levels.

This is close to predictions by Polymarket bettors who price in a 57% chance that XRP price will hit $1.20 before the end of April.

As Cointelegraph reported, if bulls fail to reclaim the moving averages and the price breaks below $1.27, the XRP price risks falling toward $1.11 and eventually to the $1 psychological level.