220,000 BTC Vanish in a Year: Are Whales Behind Bitcoin’s Slide?

Recent data shows that large Bitcoin holders are reducing their positions. Addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 coins have offloaded a total of 220,000 BTC over the last 12 months. This is the fastest drop in holdings by this group since early 2023. Similar behavior in past cycles came before market peaks.

Whale Holdings Show Steep Decline

According to CryptoQuant, wallets with 1K–10K BTC saw a sharp decline in holdings. These wallets are often linked to large investors who can influence price trends. CryptoBusy noted,

A drop of this size was last seen in 2021–2022, when whale holdings fell by over 822,000 BTC. That decline happened shortly before Bitcoin’s price peaked. In contrast, during growth phases like 2020–2021 and 2023–2024, these wallets added over 400,000 BTC. The recent move could mean reduced interest in holding large amounts of BTC at current levels.

Meanwhile, the MVRV ratio, which compares Bitcoin’s market value to its average buying price, has stayed below 2. In past cycles, the ratio climbed above 4.5 before major tops. In 2013, 2017, and 2021, these high levels marked overheated conditions.

As of now, the MVRV ratio is close to 1.6. The data suggests Bitcoin has not yet reached the kind of price levels that mark a cycle peak. CW8900, an on-chain analyst, said:

Bitcoin Price Outlook Points to Lower Support

Based on past trends, Bitcoin could move lower before forming a new base. Chartist Ali Martinez believes the cycle bottom will form in around 267 days, and the expected range is between $38,000 and $50,000. Past corrections in 2018 and 2022 lasted one year and dropped over 75% from the highs.

This cycle’s peak is estimated near $126,000. A 70% drawdown would bring Bitcoin down to around $37,500. Prior outlooks also noted that if selling pressure increases, the price may first move toward $70,000 in the short term before testing lower levels.

Whale Activity and Market Signals

Large wallets on Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken showed net buying yesterday. CW8900 observed that “they then pushed the price down with small sell volume,” which could suggest continued accumulation at current prices. The market is also watching for the upcoming US CPI release.

Bitcoin briefly touched $92,400 earlier this week before pulling back to around $91,500. It is now trading at $92,000 (per CoinGecko data). Over the last seven days, the price is down 2%. As previously reported, the RSI has dropped below 60, which traders often watch as a shift in trend strength.

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