Ali Martinez Predicts Bitcoin Price Will Drop to $38,000 in 2026

TLDR

• Ali Martinez predicts Bitcoin will reach a cycle bottom in October 2026.
• Bitcoin price could fall between $38,000 and $50,000 by October 2026.
• Martinez’s prediction is based on historical Bitcoin price cycle patterns.
• Bitcoin’s market cycle typically lasts around 1,064 days from bottom to top.
• Previous Bitcoin bear markets saw corrections of up to 84%.

The cryptocurrency market has seen a back-and-forth between Bitcoin (BTC) bulls and bears, with traders debating whether the leading digital currency is poised for another rally or heading into a prolonged downturn. Popular on-chain analyst Ali Martinez has taken a bearish stance, predicting Bitcoin could hit a cycle bottom in October 2026, with the price potentially falling to between $38,000 and $50,000. Martinez’s projection has drawn attention as it aligns with historical patterns in Bitcoin’s price cycles.

Bitcoin Price Could Reach Cycle Bottom in 267 Days

Ali Martinez, in a January 12 post, suggested that Bitcoin’s next market bottom will occur in 267 days, sometime in October 2026. “BTC usually takes about 1,064 days to move from market bottom to top, followed by another 364 days for the return journey,” he explained. Martinez’s analysis is grounded in historical data, referencing Bitcoin’s performance across previous market cycles.

The analyst based his projection on Bitcoin’s performance during the past three cycles, from January 2015 to the October 2025 peak. Martinez noted that this pattern has been consistent, with Bitcoin typically reaching a top after about 1,064 days and then descending over a span of 364 days. “The next bottom will likely occur on October 5, 2026,” Martinez stated.

Martinez also backed his prediction by pointing out the correction percentages from previous bear markets. He noted that during the 2017-2018 bear market, Bitcoin experienced an 84% correction, while the 2021-2022 market saw a 77% pullback. The analyst suggested that a mid-point of 80% retracement from the latest all-time high of $126,000 could see Bitcoin reaching $37,500, though he provided a range of $38,000 to $50,000 as a more likely target.

While this forecast places Bitcoin in a bearish position, Martinez remains cautious. He pointed out that the current market correction may be less severe than those of previous cycles. Despite this, the predicted price range still suggests a considerable downturn from Bitcoin’s previous highs.

Analyst’s Prediction Signals Milder Correction Than Past Winters

Despite the bearish outlook, Martinez left room for a slightly milder correction than those observed in previous crypto winters. He acknowledged that while the previous bear markets saw deeper retracements, the current cycle could exhibit less drastic declines. “This correction will likely be less severe than past winters, but still substantial,” he added.

The market will be closely watching Bitcoin’s performance in the coming months, as it heads toward the projected October 2026 bottom. Investors and traders alike will monitor whether the cryptocurrency follows this historical pattern or deviates from it. The upcoming months will be critical in determining the trajectory of Bitcoin’s price.

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