Polymarket Shows Sub-$75K Bias in 2026

• Bitcoin slips under $64K as OI drops 1.98% to $43.43 billion, signaling long unwind.
• Volume jumps 12% to $74.90 billion as long bias risks cascade if support fails.
• Polymarket odds show 77% probability BTC stays under $75K this year.

Bitcoin price today trades near $63,790, trading flat after breaking below the $64,000 support that held through most of February. The move places sellers in control as derivatives positioning collapses and prediction markets price in extended weakness through year-end.

Open Interest Crashes As Derivatives Unwind

Open interest declined 1.98% to $43.43 billion, continuing a multi-week deleveraging process. Volume surged 12.19% to $74.90 billion, a combination that confirms forced liquidations rather than organic profit-taking. When OI drops sharply while volume spikes, it signals that overleveraged positions are being wiped out.

The long/short ratio on Binance sits at 2.28 for accounts and 2.65 for top traders, showing leverage remains tilted toward longs despite the breakdown. This imbalanced positioning creates risk for cascading liquidations if Bitcoin loses the $63,000 to $62,500 support zone.

The 24-hour liquidation data shows $198.71 million in total wipeouts, with longs accounting for $175.23 million. The asymmetric flush reveals that bullish positioning dominated into the breakdown, and those positions are now being forced out at losses.

Options volume jumped 58.36% to $3.67 billion while options OI rose 2.54% to $30.26 billion, signaling fresh positioning and elevated volatility interest.

Prediction Markets Price In Extended Weakness

Polymarket data shows a 77% probability that Bitcoin stays below $75,000 by year-end 2026, with only 23% odds of reclaiming that level. The prediction market assigns even lower probabilities to higher targets, with just 18% odds of reaching $120,000 and 13% for $130,000.

The most consensus view shows 71% probability Bitcoin stays below $50,000, while 53% expect it to hold above $45,000. This clustering suggests the market is pricing in a range-bound scenario between $45,000 and $75,000 through the remainder of 2026.

When prediction markets shift heavily toward bearish outcomes while price breaks support, it confirms that broader sentiment has deteriorated beyond just technical positioning. The crowd is now betting against a recovery to previous highs.

Weekly Chart Breaks Multi-Year Trendline Support

The weekly chart shows Bitcoin testing an ascending trendline that originates from the November 2022 low near $15,000. This same trendline has acted as support during every major correction over the past three years, including the pullbacks in 2023 and 2024 that preceded rallies to new all-time highs.

Price is currently holding above this trendline, marked by the lower dotted support line on the chart. The trendline represents the structural backbone of the entire bull market. A sustained break below this level would invalidate the multi-year uptrend and signal a shift to a new market regime.

The weekly EMAs are stacked bearishly. The 20-week EMA at $85,825, 50-week at $92,020, 100-week at $84,591, and 200-week at $68,264 all sit above the price, forming a resistance ceiling. However, the 200-week EMA at $68,264 is only 7 percent above current levels, making it the first major reclaim target for bulls.

The RSI on the weekly chart sits at 25.87, the lowest reading since the November 2022 capitulation bottom when Bitcoin traded near $15,000. The indicator has not been this oversold in over two years, suggesting price has reached an extreme that historically precedes either violent reversals or prolonged consolidation before recovery.

Intraday Structure Shows Failed Recovery Attempts

Bitcoin attempted to reclaim $66,000 earlier in the session but was rejected by the Supertrend resistance and descending trendline that has capped rallies since the February highs. The failure to hold above $64,000 opened the door to the current leg lower toward $63,000.

The DMI shows the negative directional indicator (red line) at 27 above the positive directional indicator (blue line) at 10, confirming sellers have full control of momentum. The ADX (orange line) at 40 shows the trend is gaining strength rather than losing steam.

When Bitcoin fails to hold psychological support levels like $64,000 during high-volume sessions, it typically leads to a test of the next major demand zone. The $60,000 to $62,500 shelf represents the final defense before a move toward the 200-week EMA at $68,264 becomes likely.

Outlook: Will Bitcoin Go Up?

The next move depends on whether Bitcoin can defend the $60,000 to $62,500 zone or if sellers push through to test the 200-week EMA and deeper demand levels.

• Bullish case: Bitcoin holds $62,500 and reclaims $68,264 with rising volume. That flips the 200-week EMA back to support and signals the first step toward invalidating the weekly breakdown.
• Bearish case: A weekly close below $60,000 exposes the $55,000 to $50,000 demand zone that Polymarket participants are pricing as the likely landing zone.

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