Crypto Market Outlook for the Second Half of 2025
#Industry Buzz
Related Articles
With the close of the first half of 2025, the cryptocurrency market has once again showcased its unique appeal and vast potential. Leading cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have repeatedly hit new highs, fueling a thriving market.
Looking ahead to the second half of the year, what opportunities and challenges will the cryptocurrency market face?
1. Global Macro Environment Improvement
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecasts a 4.6% GDP growth rate for the U.S. in Q2, indicating an improving economy and suggesting a possible "soft landing" for the U.S. economy. The market widely expects at least one rate cut in the second half of the year, which will further ease global liquidity conditions.
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.8% at the start of the year to 4.2% in June.
- The U.S. dollar index dropped from its annual high of 106 to around 98.
- Both gold and Bitcoin reached record highs, reflecting a resonance in safe-haven assets.
Bitcoin’s role as "digital gold" is gaining broad acceptance among institutional investors, especially against the backdrop of increasing sovereign debt burdens. Crypto assets are becoming a new outlet for funds to hedge systemic risks.
2. Institutional Wave: ETF Inflows and Corporate Reserve Strategies Intertwine
2025 marks a pivotal year in the institutionalization of the crypto market. Following the U.S. approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2024, the path for institutional entry has been paved. By mid-year, Fidelity and BlackRock had raised the assets under management (AUM) of their BTC ETF products to over $50 billion. As of June, the global crypto-related ETF AUM surpassed $1.1 trillion, with nearly 60% of trading volume driven by professional institutions, family offices, and hedge funds.
Meanwhile, multinational corporations such as MicroStrategy and Tesla have increased their crypto asset reserves, integrating them into “dynamic cash reserve” strategies. Corporate entry is shifting from “strategic deployment” to “structural allocation.” According to data from the Monthly Outlook: Three Themes for 2H25, approximately 228 publicly listed companies collectively hold 820,000 BTC. These companies acquire Bitcoin through equity or convertible bond financing, with market values far exceeding their net assets. The intensified trend of large institutional holders not only supports upward momentum in BTC prices but also enhances the legitimacy and acceptance of cryptocurrencies.
3. Supercycle or Structural Bull? Market Divergence Brings New Opportunities
The current market sits at a crossroads between a “supercycle” and a “structural bull market.” Compared to 2017 or 2021, the 2025 bull run is steadier and liquidity is more broadly distributed, with three key features standing out:
3. 1 On-Chain Activity Increases but FOMO Remains Limited
- Google search trends for keywords like “crypto” and “Bitcoin” have yet to reach historical peaks, indicating that retail-driven bubbles have not yet emerged.
- The number of Bitcoin addresses is steadily growing, with active addresses maintaining above 1.5 million.
- Layer 1 and Layer 2 transaction volumes have increased by over 40% month-over-month.
3.2 Significant Altcoin Divergence and Strengthened Blue-Chip Effect
Unlike past bull runs where many tokens surged together, this cycle resembles a “value capture” market. Tokens centered around AI, Real World Assets (RWA), and Layer 2 protocols demonstrate sustained growth potential.
3.3 Internal Restructuring Within the Cycle: Transition from Hype to Utility
Previously hype-driven sectors like GameFi and SocialFi are gradually evolving in mid-2025 into product forms focused on “sustainable economic models and user retention.”
4. Continued Technological Drive and Deepening Ecological Development
In the second half of 2025, technological advancements remain the fundamental force driving the deepening development of the crypto ecosystem.
4.1 RWA (Real-World Assets) Accelerate Integration with Traditional Finance
The tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) has become one of the most prominent themes in the blockchain industry. Currently, Ethereum maintains a dominant position in the RWA market, while mature DeFi platforms like Solana are expanding into the RWA space. According to RWA data, as of June 17, 2025, the total on-chain RWA value exceeds $23.8 billion (excluding stablecoins), including $13.8 billion in private credit, $7.4 billion in U.S. government bonds, and $1.6 billion in commodities.
BlackRock predicts the RWA market size will soar to $16 trillion by 2030. As RWA continues to deepen, issuers, custodial banks, investors, and blockchain entities within the RWA ecosystem are rapidly growing. Investment opportunities are expected in asset management, banking IT, and cross-border payments, marking a true convergence of DeFi and TradFi.
4.2 Layer 2 Protocols Mature, Advanced Phase Initiated Post EIP-4844
Since the activation of EIP-4844 (Proto-Danksharding) at the end of 2024, the Ethereum Layer 2 ecosystem has experienced explosive growth. EIP-4844 significantly reduces L2 gas fees by introducing blob transactions, enabling mass adoption by developers and users. Entering the second half of 2025, L2 development has progressed beyond mere “scaling” to a new stage of “performance optimization, ecosystem deepening, and commercial sustainability.”
1) According to the latest L2Beat data, total locked value (TVL) on L2 networks has surpassed $43 billion, with active user numbers also increasing.
2) The zkRollup sector has matured in 2025, with representative projects like zkSync Era, Scroll, and Polygon zkEVM achieving EVM compatibility and stable mainnet operation, resolving prior critical issues of high migration costs and tooling gaps.
3) Layer 2 solutions are broadly exploring “L3/L4” architectures, attempting to build lighter, customized application chains via “App-specific Rollups.” This trend is expected to further enhance Web3 applications’ competitiveness in high-frequency trading, privacy computing, and on-chain AI inference scenarios.
5. Clearer Regulatory Path: Stablecoin and Market Structure Legislation
5.1 Progress on Stablecoin Legislation
In the first half of 2025, U.S. crypto policy underwent unprecedented changes. Stablecoin legislation is expected to be implemented first. Currently, the House is advancing the STABLE Act, while the Senate is moving forward with the GENIUS Act, both enjoying bipartisan support. On June 11, the Senate passed the GENIUS Act and sent it to the House for consideration. These bills establish reserve requirements, anti-money laundering compliance, bankruptcy protections, and consumer rights provisions, providing a clearer regulatory framework for the stablecoin market.
5.2 Legislative Developments in Crypto Market Structure
In addition to stablecoin legislation, the U.S. House Financial Services Committee has formally introduced the CLARITY Act. This bill aims to clearly define the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC over crypto assets, with regulations segmented according to asset characteristics. This legislative move is expected to provide a clearer and more transparent regulatory environment for the cryptocurrency market, reducing market uncertainty and boosting investor confidence.
The crypto market in the second half of 2025 will no longer be a simple “sentiment-driven bull market.” Instead, it marks the beginning of a complex ecological evolution. Driven by the combined forces of technology, capital, regulation, and user adoption, the market is set to make a substantial leap from crypto speculation to becoming a fundamental digital asset infrastructure.
Through in-depth market analysis and rational investment decisions, investors can expect to capture more opportunities and realize wealth growth in the second half of 2025. MEXC will remain at the forefront of technological innovation, providing global users with low-barrier, efficient, and secure trading channels, jointly exploring the limitless possibilities of crypto.
Log in to MEXC now to strategically position yourself and seize the opportunities of Crypto’s second half in 2025!
Disclaimer: The information provided in this material does not constitute advice on investment, taxation, legal, financial, accounting, or any other related services, nor does it serve as a recommendation to purchase, sell, or hold any assets. MEXC Learn offers this information for reference purposes only and does not provide investment advice. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and exercise caution when investing. MEXC is not responsible for users' investment decisions.