Odds of SOL, LTC, XRP ETF approval stand at 95%: analysts
The chances of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approving spot cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds for Solana, Litecoin and XRP in 2025 have increased to 95%, Bloomberg ETF analysts James Sayffart and Eric Balchunas say.
Seyffart and Balchunas shared the new forecasts in an updated outlook posted on X on June 20,2025.
As well as the high odds for a SEC approval for Solana (SOL), Litecoin (LTC) and XRP (XRP), other crypto ETF filings also have high chances of approval in 2025.
These include Dogecoin, Cardano, Avalanche, Hedera and Polkadot at 90% chances of approval in 2025.
Seyffart and Balchunas also assigned a 95% probability of approval within the next six months to crypto basket or index ETF filings by Grayscale, Hashdex, Bitwise, and Franklin Templeton. Notably, many of these applications are approaching their final SEC deadlines in early July.
SEC’s positive engagement key
Seyffart notes that their decision to raise the odds that the regulator gives a nod to most of the spot crypto ETF filings is down to “engagement from the SEC.” The ETF analysts see developments as “a very positive sign.”
The SEC has already acknowledged the 19b-4 forms for these applications and likely views the underlying altcoins as commodities, the analysts noted. They also pointed to Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated futures markets that already exist for many of these assets.
As for timing, analysts say approvals could arrive within weeks or closer to final deadlines later this year. Most applications have their final SEC decision dates in October and November.
Despite the uncertainty around timing, the ETF experts believe it’s a “matter of when, not if.”
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