Quantum Threat To Bitcoin Isn’t The Hack—It’s The ‘Contagion,’ Analyst Warns

The founder of Capriole Investments has explained how the Quantum Computing threat to Bitcoin can cause a widespread collapse in trust.

Satoshi’s Bitcoin Not The Main Quantum Risk

In a new post on X, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards has talked about what the real risk of Quantum Computing could be to Bitcoin. “Quantum Computing” is an emerging class of computers that could, in theory, be used to decode encryption used to secure networks like BTC.

Quantum Computing has been an “upcoming” technology for a while now, but lately, it has gained more traction in the news following some advancements. This has naturally also encouraged discourse in the cryptocurrency community about what it could mean for digital assets.

In the context of Bitcoin, the risk that’s mainly cited is that many old wallets have their public keys exposed. Entities with Quantum computers may be able to decode private keys from these public keys, thus gaining access to the wallets.

A chunk of the supply is vulnerable to such an attack, including the tokens held by Satoshi, BTC’s pseudonymous creator. Some have speculated that a Quantum computer owner could dump these coins on the market, causing a price crash. Others, though, have argued that the sector may be able to absorb the selling pressure from these tokens.

Edwards, however, dismissed this as the primary concern. “For those who say it doesn’t matter if Satoshi’s coins get taken by a Quantum hacker, the risk is not his coins, it’s the contagion that follows,” noted the analyst.

As an example, Edwards cited the KelpDAO incident. KelpDAO is an Ethereum liquid restaking protocol that fell prey to a $290 million rsETH exploit on April 18th. The hacker took the exploited rsETH and used it to borrow WETH from the lending protocol Aave. After the market panic that ensued, the market cap of Aave’s native token suffered a sharp 20% drop. “$12B was drained from Aave TVL in days (40X the hack),” said the Capriole founder.

Similarly to this hack, if Satoshi’s tokens were brought into circulation, the effects could outweigh the market impact that those tokens alone would have due to the loss of trust. “It’s the widespread collapse in trust and ensuing bank run we need to plan for now,” explained Edwards.

The Capriole founder has been vocal about the Quantum Computing threat to Bitcoin, both online and at event presentations, urging the community to find a solution. Recently, some work on the issue has advanced, with multiple proposals already being published to counter the threat. Whether these ideas will make it to upgrades only remains to be seen.

BTC Price

Bitcoin surged above $79,000 during the weekend, but the coin has retraced to $77,700 to kick off Monday.