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Will Bitcoin Peak in September? Liquidity Bubbles and Macro Risks

Aug 22, 2025MEXC

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In 2025, global financial markets are entering a phase increasingly defined by speculation and excess liquidity. Traditional economic theory suggests that asset prices should be driven by fundamentals such as productivity, profitability, or cash flow. Yet in today's macro environment, valuations are more often dictated by liquidity, the sheer availability of capital. This is especially evident in the cryptocurrency market, where BTC's price is not only closely tied to macroeconomic conditions but also serves as a key gauge of global liquidity.

According to MEXC data, BTC climbed to a high of 116,938.7 USDT in the past 24 hours and is now trading at 114,808.0 USDT. After reaching a new all-time high, BTC has moved into a phase of correction and consolidation, hovering around 115,000 USDT. Against this backdrop, whether BTC will mark its cycle top in September 2025 has become a central focus of market discussion.

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1. On-Chain and Market Indicators: Approaching the Risk Zone

When assessing whether BTC is nearing the top, on-chain data and market structure often provide the most direct signals. Compared with the broader macro-liquidity environment, these indicators reflect investor behavior and market sentiment more closely. At present, several key metrics suggest that the market is entering a potential risk zone.

1.1 MVRV Indicator Enters the "Moderate Risk Zone"

According to a report cited by Cointelegraph, sentiment analytics platform Santiment noted that BTC's market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio has reached +21%. This metric gauges the aggregate profit and loss position of investors. Historically, when MVRV falls within the 15%-25% range, the market tends to enter a moderate risk zone, where a large share of investors begin to have incentives to realize profits. While this does not necessarily signal an immediate sell-off, it indicates that BTC's upside is becoming more limited and the risk-reward balance is shifting.

1.2 Signs of a Double-Top Formation

According to Coin World, recent technical charts show that BTC has encountered significant resistance around $122,000, with multiple failed attempts to break higher. This points to a potential double-top pattern. A double-top is typically a trend reversal signal: two similar highs are separated by a trough that forms the neckline, and once the price closes below the neckline, the formation is confirmed, often signaling the start of a downward move. At present, the neckline is around $111,982. A confirmed close below this level would substantially reinforce the bearish technical outlook.

1.3 Capital Flows and Derivatives Signals

On the other hand, ETF inflows and stablecoin demand remain resilient, indicating that institutional and retail capital has not fully withdrawn. Options skew also suggests that concerns over a sharp downside are limited, implying that BTC still retains potential for a rebound or further upward move in the short term.

Spot Bitcoin ETF Net Flows. Source: CoinGlass

2. Liquidity Patterns: The History and Logic of a September Cycle Top

Over the past several decades, fiscal and monetary policies have jointly worked to maintain an anchoring effect on the economy. But the reality in 2025 shows a very different picture:

Persistent fiscal deficits: Even under conditions of full employment, the U.S. is running a deficit equal to 7% of GDP.
High rates alongside asset bubbles: Despite interest rates at 5%, BTC remains near all-time highs.
Fiscal dominance over monetary policy: Fiscal stimulus continues even during periods of economic expansion.

This policy mix has gradually pushed markets away from fundamentals, with liquidity emerging as the primary driver of price fluctuations.

2.1 Halving Cycles and the Timing Window

Historically, BTC has tended to peak around 525-530 days after each halving event:

2013: 525 days
2017: 530 days
2021: 518 days

By this measure, the 525th day following the 2024 halving falls in late September 2025, aligning closely with current market expectations of a potential September cycle top. At that point, BTC could reach between $135,000 and $150,000.

2.2 Correlation Between M2 Growth and Bitcoin Price Trends

Research by analyst MintedMacro highlights a strong correlation between BTC's price and global M2 money supply. When M2 expands or remains elevated, BTC has typically shown strong performance. However, M2 now appears to have formed a double-top structure, with the second peak lower than the first, suggesting that liquidity may be approaching an inflection point.

2.3 Liquidations and Liquidity Release

If BTC's price were to rise by another ~10% in the short term, it could trigger over $13 billion in short positions being liquidated, resulting in a liquidity-driven cascade short squeeze. This mechanism implies that near-term upside could be sharp and aggressive, but also increases the likelihood of a reversal once extreme levels are reached.

3. Macro Risks: Liquidity as a Bottleneck

Beyond liquidity itself, broader macro factors are also exerting a significant influence on BTC's price.

3.1 Federal Reserve Policy Expectations

The market widely expects that the Federal Reserve may cut rates within the year, adding to short-term uncertainty and volatility in BTC. Rate cuts can act as a catalyst for further upside, but they can also amplify the scale of corrections if the macro trend reverses.

History shows a strong link between shifts in Fed policy and BTC price cycles. In 2013, liquidity easing helped BTC break above $1,000 for the first time. During the 2014-2016 period, as QE ended and the Fed entered a rate-hike cycle, BTC fell into a prolonged bear market, bottoming near the $200 range. When global liquidity eased again in 2017, BTC entered its second bull run, reaching a high of $20,000. Similarly, the ultra-loose policy response to the pandemic in 2020 ignited BTC's historic bull market. These patterns highlight how BTC's price cycles remain closely tied to the Fed's liquidity environment, a relationship that continues to warrant close attention in 2025.

3.2 Divergence in Global Central Bank Policies

Some emerging markets have already begun cutting rates, while developed economies remain cautious. For example, the central banks of Japan, Canada, Brazil, Colombia, and Singapore have kept rates unchanged, whereas Chile and South Africa moved ahead with 25-basis-point cuts amid easing inflation and weakening growth. In the Eurozone, second-quarter GDP came in slightly above expectations with 0.1% quarter-on-quarter growth, but core inflation held steady at 2.3% year-on-year, suggesting the European Central Bank will maintain a cautious stance.

3.3 Continued Institutional Inflows

Large institutions such as Tether and Strategy have expanded their BTC and ETH holdings, amplifying the leverage effect on market volatility. According to BitcoinTreasuries.net, institutions including corporations, governments, ETFs, and exchanges, currently hold around 3.64 million BTC, equivalent to about 17% of total supply, with an aggregate value of approximately $428 billion. This underscores the scale of capital entering the market.

Data from Coingecko shows that Strategy holds roughly 629,000 BTC, representing about 3% of global circulating supply, giving it substantial influence over market sentiment and price swings. Other major holders include Marathon (about 50,600 BTC), XXI Capital (about 43,500 BTC), and Coinbase (about 11,700 BTC). Collectively, these positions contribute to a new wave of supply-side pressure. On one hand, this concentration amplifies scarcity and volatility; on the other, it provides a degree of long-term capital support for BTC.

3.4 Fiscal and Debt Structure

The U.S. Treasury has recently shown a preference for issuing short-term Treasuries (T-bills), which has somewhat reduced the appeal of fixed-income assets and benefited risk assets, including BTC. However, if fiscal deficits continue to climb, questions around sustainability may emerge, weighing on investor sentiment.

Together, these dynamics outline a market environment characterized by liquidity dominance and distorted fundamentals.

4. How Should Investors Respond?

In the current environment of heightened speculation and liquidity-driven markets, traditional static holding strategies are increasingly inadequate for navigating sharp volatility. Investors need to reassess and refine their decision-making frameworks across several dimensions:

Monitor liquidity indicators: Global M2 changes remain highly correlated with BTC's price.

Beware of short squeeze effects: Rapid price surges are often accompanied by large-scale liquidations, which can magnify subsequent corrections.

Manage policy expectations: Whether through Federal Reserve rate decisions or fiscal stimulus measures, policy direction directly impacts liquidity curves and risk appetite. Investors should conduct multi-scenario analysis in advance to avoid being caught off guard by policy shifts.

Adopt dynamic position management: In extreme market conditions, flexible position sizing and stop-loss mechanisms provide greater protection than passively holding long-term. Dynamic management can help reduce drawdowns while also capturing incremental gains amid volatility.

To manage risk more effectively, investors can make full use of the stop-loss and take-profit orders available on the MEXC platform. By setting take-profit levels, profits can be locked in and protected from being eroded during corrections. At the same time, clearly defined stop-loss levels help contain downside risk by exiting positions before losses deepen. MEXC offers flexible stop-loss and take-profit tools, allowing users to adjust trigger prices and execution prices according to their own risk tolerance and market conditions. Applying these tools effectively is key to protecting capital, improving trading efficiency, and navigating volatile or trend-reversing markets with greater confidence.

5. Conclusion

Taken together, signals of liquidity topping out, the halving cycle window, macro risks, and overheated sentiment all contribute to the logic behind a potential September cycle top for BTC. While the long-term outlook remains constructive, in the short term the market may first experience a liquidity-driven push higher, followed by a period of risk release and correction.

For investors, the real challenge is not pinpointing the exact top, but maintaining discipline through liquidity cycles and holding a stable long-term footing amid waves of speculation. A potential September peak for BTC may feel like a celebration, but what follows the celebration could prove to be the true test.

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