Crypto Prices Pump as Iran Deal Hopes Rise – Two Scenarios That Will Decide If Bitcoin Hits $70K or Crashes

Bitcoin just ripped $1,600 higher in 60 minutes. The price touched $69,000 and liquidated $81 million in shorts. Crypto traders woke up to green candles across the board.

But US futures are still negative. That creates a strange split. Either crypto is front‑running good news about a US‑Iran ceasefire deal, or this is weekend manipulation designed to wipe out leveraged shorts before US markets open Monday morning.

Wise Advice, an account tracking geopolitical risk, laid out a two‑stage plan that could be driving the move.

The Two‑Stage Ceasefire Plan

Stage one is a 45‑day temporary ceasefire. During that window, both sides would negotiate permanent terms. The ceasefire could be extended if progress is made.

Stage two is the final deal. It requires the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the removal or dilution of Iran’s enriched uranium. Polymarket gives this a 27 percent chance of happening before April 30, up 10 percent in the last 24 hours.

That rising probability may explain the sudden crypto pump.

Read also: DeepSeek AI Predicts XRP and Bitcoin Prices if Trump Leaves Office Early

Two Scenarios for Crypto

Scenario one: a ceasefire gets confirmed. Oil would collapse to $85‑$90 per barrel. The US dollar index would weaken. Risk assets, including crypto, would rally. Bitcoin breaking above $70K becomes likely, with a path toward $80‑$85K.

Scenario two: talks fail. Oil would spike above $115‑$120. The S&P 500 would test recent lows. The dollar would strengthen. Risk assets would sell off hard. Bitcoin could drop back below $65K and test lower support.

The oil market is the tell. If WTI drops below $105 today, the market knows something good is happening behind closed doors. That would confirm the ceasefire speculation is real, not just weekend manipulation.

For now, Bitcoin sits just below $70K. The next 24 hours will decide whether this pump has legs or fades by Monday morning. Traders should watch oil prices and the White House news feed closely. One tweet or one oil move could set the tone for the entire week.

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