Gold Price Today: Why Gold Is Falling and What Iran Ceasefire Talks Mean for Bullion

TLDR

• Gold reversed early losses after reports of US-Iran ceasefire discussions
• A potential 45-day ceasefire framework is being discussed by the US, Iran, and regional mediators
• Trump set a Tuesday 8 p.m. ET deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
• Strong US jobs data reduced expectations for rate cuts, pressuring gold prices
• Gold has fallen around 12% since the Iran conflict began in late February

Gold prices steadied on Monday after early losses, as reports emerged that the US, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire deal.

Spot gold was last trading near $4,655 an ounce, after dropping as much as 1.6% earlier in the session. Gold futures rose 0.6% to $4,709 an ounce.

The ceasefire report came from Axios, which cited sources familiar with the talks. The deal could potentially reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments.

The Strait has been largely closed since the Iran war began in late February. That closure has pushed oil prices sharply higher, more than doubling this year.

Over the weekend, President Trump posted on Truth Social threatening to target Iranian civilian infrastructure, including power plants and bridges, if tanker traffic was not restored by Tuesday evening.

Trump had previously given Iran a 10-day deadline on March 26 to reopen Hormuz. That deadline was set to expire Monday evening.

Despite the ceasefire report softening the mood, gold still faced pressure from other directions.

Strong Jobs Data Weighs on Rate Cut Hopes

US nonfarm payrolls for March came in stronger than expected, hitting the highest level since late 2024. That data reduced the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Gold typically benefits from lower interest rates, since it pays no yield. With rate cuts looking less likely, the metal faces a tougher environment.

Economists are forecasting a 1% jump in the consumer price index for March, which would be the biggest one-month rise since 2022. Higher oil prices from the Hormuz disruption are a key driver of that expected increase.

Gold has fallen roughly 12% since the conflict began, as inflation fears pushed back expectations for rate cuts.

Gold’s Volatile Run Since the Conflict Began

Bullion gained more than 4% last week before giving back some of those gains on Thursday, breaking a four-day winning streak.

Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets, noted that the 200-day moving average had held, and that the late-month recovery suggested the sell-off may be easing.

Silver fell 1.1% to $72.19 an ounce. Platinum declined, while palladium rose. The US Dollar Index was roughly flat on the day.

Spot gold last traded at $4,682 per ounce as of early Monday trading in the US.

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