Iran war bets turn prediction markets into real-time macro radar: Sygnum

Prediction markets rapidly repriced the odds of US escalation in the Iran conflict, offering a real-time signal of geopolitical risk for traders.

Odds on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi shifted in real time as President Donald Trump paired new threats with signals of possible negotiations on Sunday, while Bitcoin (BTC) rose more than 3.5% on Monday.

Crypto prediction markets are no longer a sideshow during periods of geopolitical tension, with professional desks increasingly using them to gauge macro risk, according to Sygnum Bank chief investment officer Fabian Dori.  

“Prediction markets price discrete, named outcomes with real capital behind them,” Dori told Cointelegraph. “For crypto in particular, where so much price action is driven by specific binary events, regulatory decisions, geopolitical developments [and] protocol upgrades, that is a categorically different signal.”

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Throughout the Iran conflict escalation, prediction market odds on de-escalation shifted before mainstream financial media coverage caught up and “had direct correlation” with Bitcoin price, Dori added.

Prediction markets enter macro playbooks

On some professional desks, prediction markets are now used as a real-time event monitor during fast-moving geopolitical situations, alongside funding rates, options surfaces and flows, Dori said.

ARK Invest integrating Kalshi’s prediction market data into its investment process shows how event odds are migrating into mainstream institutional workflows.

In a regulated environment, prediction markets function as a context layer, informing how teams frame risk scenarios rather than serving as direct buy-or-sell signals. 

Related: Prediction markets are testing legal limits in strict Asian markets

“The goal is to decide what to do before the event happens,” he said, arguing that markets that continuously update a capital-weighted probability of war, sanctions or ceasefire are a natural fit for that discipline.

Institutional money and growing scrutiny

The flows are now large enough that institutional investors can no longer dismiss the signal as retail noise. In March, the number of prediction market transactions reached about 191 million, up 2,838% year-on-year, with monthly notional volume rising to roughly $23.9 billion. 

At the same time, traditional exchange operators are moving in. Intercontinental Exchange, the parent of the New York Stock Exchange, completed a new $600 million investment in Polymarket on March 27, deepening its conviction in prediction markets.

“This is no longer a niche product,” Dori said, adding that the real question for professional investors is no longer whether to watch Iran-linked markets at all, but “how to integrate them in a way that adds genuine analytical value rather than simply adding a new source of noise.”

The boom is also drawing tougher questions about fairness and integrity. Six Polymarket traders netted around $1 million betting on the timing of US strikes on Iran in late February, sparking insider trading concerns.

The platform also pulled a market on a missing US pilot on Saturday after backlash over over related wagers.

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