Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will US-Iran Ceasefire Talks Trigger a Short Squeeze As OI Jumps

Bitcoin (BTC) price is up by more than 8% this week amid optimism around the end of the US-Iran war. On April 11, US Vice President JD Vance landed in Islamabad, Pakistan, to lead talks on a ceasefire. However, despite this development, the Bitcoin price outlook remains fragile because the recently announced two-week ceasefire is already on shaky ground. This has raised the question of whether the recent talks will create a trap or an opportunity for BTC.

BTC Remains Steady as J.D Vance Leads Ceasefire Talks

Bitcoin price has posted a strong recovery this week. It opened trading on Monday at around $69K, and has since surged to trade at $72,785 at press time. The rally has coincided with easing geopolitical tensions that may have reignited demand for risk-on assets.

This rally could continue if the peace talks that are currently ongoing in Pakistan bear fruit. The negotiations are being led by Vice President Vance and Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Ghalibaf. Earlier, Vance had warned Iran against trying to “play” the US.

One of the contentious issues in the war has been the Strait of Hormuz. As reported, the Strait has remained closed even after the US and Iran announced their two-week ceasefire.

Therefore, with no clarity on what the results of these negotiations will be, BTC price is sitting at a pivotal point. If either party is not satisfied with the results of the talks and the attacks resume, the price may tank. However, if the talks are successful, there may be an opportunity for traders who decide to buy now.

JPMorgan issued a warning saying that if the ceasefire does not hold, the equity market could crash to a new low. Given that Bitcoin tends to mirror the performance of equity markets, this warning also applies to BTC.

Bitcoin Price Outlook as Bulls Bet on Recovery

Bitcoin bulls appear to be betting on a price recovery, with data from Coinglass showing a 15% increase in open interest in the last week to $20.80 billion. This is the highest open interest in three weeks.

The surging OI coincides with a symmetrical triangle pattern that often signals that a breakout rally is looming. Bitcoin is currently testing resistance at the upper trendline of this pattern, and if it breaks, the price could soar by 22% to around $89,000.

The odds of this breakout rally happening are high, considering that the RSI is rising and has reached a new high at 60. This means that the bullish momentum is strong, and if the trend continues, it will support a bullish long-term Bitcoin price prediction.

Importantly, this RSI is at its highest since mid-March, a sign that buying pressure is at its strongest in nearly a month. If the US-Iran talks are a success, this buying pressure could surge.

At the same time, the MACD is supporting a bullish outlook for Bitcoin price, with the recent crossover of the MACD line to the positive region suggesting that the uptrend will likely continue.

This bullish outlook may be invalidated if the US and Iran fail to agree on a ceasefire. Such a move could trigger a short-term downtrend from panic sellers.