‘Dramatically underperformed’ – Can Bitcoin still break $80K this cycle?

At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $78,127.14, giving traders and investors renewed optimism that the cryptocurrency would surpass the $80,000 mark.

Although BTC saw a lot of volatility in April, a zoom out of the monthly price chart showed that it has increased by more than 17% in the last month.

However, despite such price momentum, BloFin Research believes,

This analysis was based on the April 2024 halving. As compared to previous cycles that took place in 2012, 2016, and 2020, the 2024 BTC cycle saw fewer parabolic rallies and smaller price appreciation.

Bitcoin volatility index

The 30-day Realized Volatility, which measures the actual day-to-day movement of Bitcoin [BTC] over the past 30 days, further confirmed the sentiment. In fact, the metric in 2020 was 9.64%, which signaled sharp daily fluctuations toward $69K during the massive bull market. 

In 2024, it was calmer at 3.11%. And as of the present scenario, it was at 1.58%, hinting at an extremely compressed momentum. This downturn may be because of the Spot Bitcoin ETF, which was launched in January 2024, creating institutional demand.

Additionally, the Fed rate dilemma, tensions in the Middle East, multiple regulatory reforms, and the October 2025 crash also played a role.

However, on the flip side, such scenarios have also created room for a breakout. 

Mixed community sentiment

In fact, other analysts are calling that the Bitcoin bottom is here and the bullish price rally might get triggered soon. 

However, as expected, forever Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff thinks otherwise, as he noted, 

Are on-chain metrics in favor of a bull run?

For that part, on the metric font, things are a little different.

Bitcoin Open Interest (OI)-Weighted Funding Rate 4-hour chart suggested that short traders were paying long. This means that the majority of the traders are bearish despite price recovery.

Whereas, the Bitcoin Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) chart at 1.0014 suggested that most BTC were sold at small profits. Simply put, there is still room for a bullish rally if demand continues.

Lastly, the fear and greed index in the “Neutral” zone after months further indicates that a bullish move is possible for Bitcoin.

However, inherent demand conditions are still too fragile to confirm the beginning of a full bull cycle, as AMBCrypto previously reported.

Final Summary

• The current underperformance of Bitcoin in comparison to previous cycles can be attributed to the Fed rate change, geopolitical tensions.
• A negative Funding Rate and an SOPR greater than 1 suggest that opinions about Bitcoin are diametrically opposed.