How the US Shutdown & Macro Trends Fuel Bitcoin’s $125K Record Surge

Bitcoin surmounted a fresh all-time high over the weekend, sparking renewed optimism among market analysts who see the potential for a rally that could push the leading cryptocurrency towards $150,000 before year’s end. The recent price surge underscores the growing interest in Bitcoin amid macroeconomic uncertainties and evolving crypto market dynamics.

Bitcoin’s recent rally peaked over the weekend, as the flagship cryptocurrency broke its previous all-time high and briefly crossed the $125,700 mark. Its market capitalization also edged past $2.5 trillion, setting a new record in crypto history. The surge has been attributed to various macroeconomic triggers, notably the recent U.S. government shutdown—the first since 2018—which analysts suggest has intensified Bitcoin’s role as a hedge and store of value.

According to Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at digital asset banking group Sygnum Bank, the government shutdown has reinvigorated discussions around Bitcoin’s potential as a safe haven. “Political dysfunction underscores interest in decentralized assets,” Dori explained. He added that the broader environment—characterized by loose liquidity, a resilient service sector, and relative underperformance of gold and equities—has further fueled interest in digital assets among investors.

However, the impact of the shutdown on crypto markets ultimately hinges on how it influences the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. Jake Kennis, senior research analyst at Nansen, noted that a resolution could lead to a more dovish stance from the Fed, potentially benefitting cryptocurrencies. “Crypto markets could benefit if the shutdown reduces uncertainty,” he stated. Nonetheless, Kennis emphasized that it is premature to consider this a market bottom, underscoring the need for sustained stability above key support levels.

Some traders interpret Bitcoin’s recent rise as a signal of a new accumulation phase, particularly from institutional and large retail investors. On-chain data shows a decline in selling pressure from whales, suggesting increased confidence among long-term holders. “Market data indicates the current price movement may be linked to an accumulation phase,” Dori noted, highlighting that reduced speculative activity and steadier positions often precede significant upward moves.

Meanwhile, open interest in Bitcoin derivatives sharply reset after last week’s options expiry, a development that some analysts believe will set the tone for the final quarter of the year. As blockchain analytics firm Glassnode pointed out, this reset could create a conducive environment for additional upside momentum.

Crypto experts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects. Charles Edwards, at Token2049, predicted that if BTC sustains its momentum above $120,000, a breakout to $150,000 by year’s end is within reach, supported by decreasing speculative activity and increasing stability.

Magazine: A detailed analysis of Bitcoin’s potential to move higher, Ethereum’s rising pressure, and the outlook for NFTs can be found in our latest in-depth feature.

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