Binance's Aster attack on Hyperliquid's open interest and trading volume, along with the subsequent attacks on HLP by $JELLYJELLY and $POPCAT, are merely minor ailments. Amidst the booming HIP-3 growth mode, the rumored BLP (lending protocol), and the positive news of $USDH actively staking 1 million $HYPE tokens to become aligned quote assets, Hyperliquid has revealed its own cracks—the HyperEVM ecosystem and $HYPE are not yet aligned. Alignment is not complicated. Under normal circumstances, the HyperEVM ecosystem consumes $HYPE, and $HYPE will also support the development of the HyperEVM ecosystem. This is an abnormal situation. The Hyperliquid Foundation's focus remains on the use of $HYPE in the spot, contract, and HIP-3 markets of HyperCore, while the development of the HyperEVM ecosystem remains a second-class citizen. Earlier, a third party proposed the HIP-5 proposal, hoping to allocate some funds from the $HYPE buyback fund to support ecosystem project tokens. However, this proposal was met with overall rejection and skepticism from the community. This points to a harsh reality: the current price of $HYPE is entirely supported by HyperCore market buybacks and has no spare capacity to support the HyperEVM ecosystem. Lessons from Others: Ethereum's Successes and Failures in Scaling L2 switching to Rollup does not satisfy ETH, and third-party sorters are almost absurd. The development of a blockchain involves three main entities: the main token (BTC/ETH/HYPE), the foundation (DAO, spiritual leader, company), and ecosystem project teams. The future of the blockchain hinges on the interaction model between the main token and ecosystem projects. Main token ⇔ Ecosystem: Two-way interaction is the healthiest approach. Ecosystem development requires the main token, and the main token empowers ecosystem projects. SOL is currently doing the best in this regard. Main token -> ecosystem; the main token empowers the ecosystem in one direction; after the main token TGE, everyone disperses, as is typical of Monad or Story. Ecosystem -> Main Token, the main token drains ecosystem projects, and the ecosystem is in a state of competition and cooperation with the main token. The evolution of the relationship between Ethereum, its DeFi projects, and L2 is the most direct and can reflect the current state of HyperEVM and its potential for future breakthroughs. According to 1kx research, the top 20 DeFi protocols account for about 70% of on-chain revenue, but their valuations are far lower than those of underlying public chains. The theory of fat protocols still holds sway, and people trust Uniswap and stablecoins on Ethereum more than Hyperliquid and USDe alone. Not to mention that Vitalik has long "hated" DeFi but can't live without it, and eventually awkwardly came up with the theory of low-risk DeFi. Many DeFi protocols have tried to build their own portals, from dYdX V4 to MakerDAO's EndGame plan in 2023, with technology choices spanning AltVM systems such as Cosmos and Solana. Then came Vitalik's public sale of $MKR. Beyond the interaction between the main token and the ecosystem, people have long underestimated the "official" legitimacy of public chains, especially the role of spiritual leaders. Vitalik's Ethereum Foundation (EF) has long been laissez-faire towards DeFi, focusing instead on metaphysical philosophical concepts. This approach, where the two sides fight like the snipe and the clam, allows the fisherman to profit, and the rise of the Solana DeFi ecosystem is not unrelated to this. Ultimately, Hyperliquid, with its exchange + public chain model, has entered a new phase of competition among public chains. Solana's impact on Ethereum has drawn criticism of Vitalik and EF, but beyond DeFi, the gains and losses of L2 Scaling are more intriguing. The L2/Rollup route has not failed technically, but the diversion of L1 revenue has put ETH into a downward cycle. Image caption: ETH Dream: L2 Scaling -> L1 Scaling Image source: @zuoyeweb3 When Ethereum L1 encountered scaling demands following the DeFi boom, Vitalik Buterin designated a scaling route centered on Rollups and went all in on the long-term application value of ZK, guiding the industry, capital, and talent toward ZK Rollups with FOMO, creating countless wealth effects or tragedies from 2020 to 2024. However, one thing is certain: DeFi is a real product aimed at end consumers. The continuous launch of L2 is essentially consuming Ethereum's L1 infrastructure resources, which means dividing ETH's value capture ability. 2024 will mark the end of L2/Rollup, and 2025 will see a return to the L1 Scaling route. After a four-year absence, he has returned, still primarily focusing on L1. Image caption: Speeding up and reducing fees hurts its own revenue. Image source: @1kxnetwork On the technical level, ZK and L2/Rollup have indeed significantly reduced the burden of L1, and the speed increase and fee reduction have indeed benefited participants, including ordinary users. However, in addition to the competitive and cooperative relationship between public chains and DeFi (applications), on the economic level, a complex triangular relationship between public chains and L2 applications has been added out of thin air, ultimately creating a lose-lose-lose situation. Ethereum's revenue is declining due to L2 caches, the wealth effect is being dispersed due to excessive L2 caches, and L2 caches are being diverted as applications continue to expand. Ultimately, Hyperliquid ended the dispute with a unified stance of "public chain as application, application as transaction," and Vitalik also lowered his arrogant head, reorganized EF (Ethereum Foundation), and embraced user experience again. During the transition from L2 to L1, the technological choices made at certain points in time, such as Scroll's emphasis on four ZK EVMs and Espresso's bet on decentralized L2 sorters, were ultimately proven false. Brevis's recent attention stems from Vitalik's renewed emphasis on the importance of ZK for privacy, and has little to do with Rollup. The fate of a project depends on both its own efforts and the course of history. Amidst a dazzling array of victories, Hyperliquid, having achieved one triumph after another, is once again facing Ethereum's dilemma: how should it manage the relationship between its main token and its ecosystem? To spark discussion: Alignment selection in HyperEVM BSC is an affiliate of Binance, and the HyperEVM team hasn't figured out exactly what Hyperliquid is. In the article "Building HyperEVM", I introduced Hyperliquid's unique development path: first, we created the controllable HyperCore, and then the open HyperEVM, connecting the two with $HYPE. In recent developments, the Hyperliquid Foundation has adhered to a token economics centered on empowering $HYPE, with HyperCore as the core and multiple HyperEVM ecosystems developing together. This leads to the core concern of this article: How should HyperEVM forge a distinctive development path? The BSC ecosystem is an appendage of Binance's main site and $BNB. PancakeSwap and ListaDAO on it also fluctuate with Binance's will, so there is no competitive relationship between BNB and BNB Chain. Even a powerful platform like Ethereum cannot maintain a long-term balance between ETH and the free and prosperous ecosystem. In comparison, Hyperliquid's existing problems can be broken down as follows: Without establishing a collaborative relationship between HyperEVM and HyperCore, HyperEVM's position is awkward. $HYPE itself is the only concern of the Hyperliquid Foundation, leaving HyperEVM ecosystem projects somewhat at a loss. Before answering the question, let's look at the current state of HyperEVM. It's very clear that the HyperEVM ecosystem projects are not keeping up with the Hyperliquid team's thinking. Image caption: HyperEVM stablecoin market share Image source: @AIC_Hugo The USDH team election triggered FOMO among many stablecoin teams, but HyperEVM does not have a significant advantage over existing stablecoin projects. BLP also has potential conflicts of interest with existing lending protocols, and the most obvious issue is the HIP-5 proposal incident, which has resulted in virtually no support for HYPE tokens to empower ecosystem projects. $ATOM represents the Cosmos team's bitter pill to swallow, while $HYPE is a mirage for ecosystem projects—no matter how much they do, it's all just consumables. A classic question arises for HyperEVM ecosystem projects: what if Hyperliquid does the same thing? Image caption: Hyperliquid flywheel Image source: @zuoyeweb3 Looking at the Hyperliquid team's consistent approach, they are very good at making moves during industry crises, thereby building their own antifragility. During industry downturns, not only is the cost of recruiting new members low, but they also use this to promote their own robustness. Over time, this has fostered a strong community consensus within Hyperliquid. The initial anti-VC narrative emphasized self-funded market making and entrepreneurship. Although it still allied with MM and had VCs purchase tokens, it had excellent public appeal and attracted early seed users. The marketing strategy during the development stage is not to recruit business development (BD) agents to attract KOLs and offer commissions, but to program them (Builder Code/HIP-3 Growth Mode), allowing users to fully customize them. Maximizing transparent data during the stable phase is Hyperliquid's latest contribution to blockchain beyond decentralization (few nodes and centralized governance by corporate will), allowing transparent data to represent the future of the blockchain; In the long term, HyperEVM should be open, not building an on-chain ecosystem based on human trust, but rather driving ecosystem development through permissionless access. The problem lies in the long-term strategy. The interests of the Hyperliquid Foundation and $HYPE are completely aligned, but to some extent, HyperEVM has the ulterior motive of prioritizing the development of its own token and ecosystem. This is understandable, as on-chain ecosystems are inherently a game of exchanging liquidity for growth. Governance mechanisms have failed to keep pace with the real-world demands of technological innovation. From Satoshi Nakamoto's departure to Vitalik's advocacy and rejection of DAOs, and then to the foundation model, public blockchain governance is still in the process of continuous experimentation. In a sense, the Vault Curator is also a manifestation of the contradiction between technology and mechanism, constantly absorbing the real governance system to move onto the chain. Lawyers + executives + business development, the problems of large companies on the chain are more abstract than those in Silicon Valley and Zhongguancun. The Hyperliquid team is at least closer to the technical characteristics of blockchain in terms of "everything is programmable". On-chain trustlessness is natural and there is no need to work hard to build a trust model. However, this approach still requires additional impetus on HyperCore, such as the management of HLP, which may have to be manually operated in times of crisis. At least at this stage, HyperEVM has not truly achieved "no access" in terms of governance mechanisms and liquidity. This does not mean that Hyperliquid still imposes technical restrictions on it, but rather that its legitimacy has not yet been fully opened to the community. We will witness the co-evolution of HyperEVM and $HYPE in the impending bear market, or the degeneration of Hyperliquid into Perp DEX. Conclusion Our ETH, Hyperliquid issue. Ethereum has an incredibly strong foundation. Despite the transitions from PoW to PoS, from L2 scaling to L1 scaling, and the impact of Solana in the DeFi field and Hyperliquid in the DEX field, it still maintains an unshakeable market position. Moreover, $ETH has already emerged from the bull-bear cycle, but $HYPE has not yet experienced a true bear market test. Sentiment is a very valuable consensus, and there is not much time left for $HYPE and HyperEVM to align.Binance's Aster attack on Hyperliquid's open interest and trading volume, along with the subsequent attacks on HLP by $JELLYJELLY and $POPCAT, are merely minor ailments. Amidst the booming HIP-3 growth mode, the rumored BLP (lending protocol), and the positive news of $USDH actively staking 1 million $HYPE tokens to become aligned quote assets, Hyperliquid has revealed its own cracks—the HyperEVM ecosystem and $HYPE are not yet aligned. Alignment is not complicated. Under normal circumstances, the HyperEVM ecosystem consumes $HYPE, and $HYPE will also support the development of the HyperEVM ecosystem. This is an abnormal situation. The Hyperliquid Foundation's focus remains on the use of $HYPE in the spot, contract, and HIP-3 markets of HyperCore, while the development of the HyperEVM ecosystem remains a second-class citizen. Earlier, a third party proposed the HIP-5 proposal, hoping to allocate some funds from the $HYPE buyback fund to support ecosystem project tokens. However, this proposal was met with overall rejection and skepticism from the community. This points to a harsh reality: the current price of $HYPE is entirely supported by HyperCore market buybacks and has no spare capacity to support the HyperEVM ecosystem. Lessons from Others: Ethereum's Successes and Failures in Scaling L2 switching to Rollup does not satisfy ETH, and third-party sorters are almost absurd. The development of a blockchain involves three main entities: the main token (BTC/ETH/HYPE), the foundation (DAO, spiritual leader, company), and ecosystem project teams. The future of the blockchain hinges on the interaction model between the main token and ecosystem projects. Main token ⇔ Ecosystem: Two-way interaction is the healthiest approach. Ecosystem development requires the main token, and the main token empowers ecosystem projects. SOL is currently doing the best in this regard. Main token -> ecosystem; the main token empowers the ecosystem in one direction; after the main token TGE, everyone disperses, as is typical of Monad or Story. Ecosystem -> Main Token, the main token drains ecosystem projects, and the ecosystem is in a state of competition and cooperation with the main token. The evolution of the relationship between Ethereum, its DeFi projects, and L2 is the most direct and can reflect the current state of HyperEVM and its potential for future breakthroughs. According to 1kx research, the top 20 DeFi protocols account for about 70% of on-chain revenue, but their valuations are far lower than those of underlying public chains. The theory of fat protocols still holds sway, and people trust Uniswap and stablecoins on Ethereum more than Hyperliquid and USDe alone. Not to mention that Vitalik has long "hated" DeFi but can't live without it, and eventually awkwardly came up with the theory of low-risk DeFi. Many DeFi protocols have tried to build their own portals, from dYdX V4 to MakerDAO's EndGame plan in 2023, with technology choices spanning AltVM systems such as Cosmos and Solana. Then came Vitalik's public sale of $MKR. Beyond the interaction between the main token and the ecosystem, people have long underestimated the "official" legitimacy of public chains, especially the role of spiritual leaders. Vitalik's Ethereum Foundation (EF) has long been laissez-faire towards DeFi, focusing instead on metaphysical philosophical concepts. This approach, where the two sides fight like the snipe and the clam, allows the fisherman to profit, and the rise of the Solana DeFi ecosystem is not unrelated to this. Ultimately, Hyperliquid, with its exchange + public chain model, has entered a new phase of competition among public chains. Solana's impact on Ethereum has drawn criticism of Vitalik and EF, but beyond DeFi, the gains and losses of L2 Scaling are more intriguing. The L2/Rollup route has not failed technically, but the diversion of L1 revenue has put ETH into a downward cycle. Image caption: ETH Dream: L2 Scaling -> L1 Scaling Image source: @zuoyeweb3 When Ethereum L1 encountered scaling demands following the DeFi boom, Vitalik Buterin designated a scaling route centered on Rollups and went all in on the long-term application value of ZK, guiding the industry, capital, and talent toward ZK Rollups with FOMO, creating countless wealth effects or tragedies from 2020 to 2024. However, one thing is certain: DeFi is a real product aimed at end consumers. The continuous launch of L2 is essentially consuming Ethereum's L1 infrastructure resources, which means dividing ETH's value capture ability. 2024 will mark the end of L2/Rollup, and 2025 will see a return to the L1 Scaling route. After a four-year absence, he has returned, still primarily focusing on L1. Image caption: Speeding up and reducing fees hurts its own revenue. Image source: @1kxnetwork On the technical level, ZK and L2/Rollup have indeed significantly reduced the burden of L1, and the speed increase and fee reduction have indeed benefited participants, including ordinary users. However, in addition to the competitive and cooperative relationship between public chains and DeFi (applications), on the economic level, a complex triangular relationship between public chains and L2 applications has been added out of thin air, ultimately creating a lose-lose-lose situation. Ethereum's revenue is declining due to L2 caches, the wealth effect is being dispersed due to excessive L2 caches, and L2 caches are being diverted as applications continue to expand. Ultimately, Hyperliquid ended the dispute with a unified stance of "public chain as application, application as transaction," and Vitalik also lowered his arrogant head, reorganized EF (Ethereum Foundation), and embraced user experience again. During the transition from L2 to L1, the technological choices made at certain points in time, such as Scroll's emphasis on four ZK EVMs and Espresso's bet on decentralized L2 sorters, were ultimately proven false. Brevis's recent attention stems from Vitalik's renewed emphasis on the importance of ZK for privacy, and has little to do with Rollup. The fate of a project depends on both its own efforts and the course of history. Amidst a dazzling array of victories, Hyperliquid, having achieved one triumph after another, is once again facing Ethereum's dilemma: how should it manage the relationship between its main token and its ecosystem? To spark discussion: Alignment selection in HyperEVM BSC is an affiliate of Binance, and the HyperEVM team hasn't figured out exactly what Hyperliquid is. In the article "Building HyperEVM", I introduced Hyperliquid's unique development path: first, we created the controllable HyperCore, and then the open HyperEVM, connecting the two with $HYPE. In recent developments, the Hyperliquid Foundation has adhered to a token economics centered on empowering $HYPE, with HyperCore as the core and multiple HyperEVM ecosystems developing together. This leads to the core concern of this article: How should HyperEVM forge a distinctive development path? The BSC ecosystem is an appendage of Binance's main site and $BNB. PancakeSwap and ListaDAO on it also fluctuate with Binance's will, so there is no competitive relationship between BNB and BNB Chain. Even a powerful platform like Ethereum cannot maintain a long-term balance between ETH and the free and prosperous ecosystem. In comparison, Hyperliquid's existing problems can be broken down as follows: Without establishing a collaborative relationship between HyperEVM and HyperCore, HyperEVM's position is awkward. $HYPE itself is the only concern of the Hyperliquid Foundation, leaving HyperEVM ecosystem projects somewhat at a loss. Before answering the question, let's look at the current state of HyperEVM. It's very clear that the HyperEVM ecosystem projects are not keeping up with the Hyperliquid team's thinking. Image caption: HyperEVM stablecoin market share Image source: @AIC_Hugo The USDH team election triggered FOMO among many stablecoin teams, but HyperEVM does not have a significant advantage over existing stablecoin projects. BLP also has potential conflicts of interest with existing lending protocols, and the most obvious issue is the HIP-5 proposal incident, which has resulted in virtually no support for HYPE tokens to empower ecosystem projects. $ATOM represents the Cosmos team's bitter pill to swallow, while $HYPE is a mirage for ecosystem projects—no matter how much they do, it's all just consumables. A classic question arises for HyperEVM ecosystem projects: what if Hyperliquid does the same thing? Image caption: Hyperliquid flywheel Image source: @zuoyeweb3 Looking at the Hyperliquid team's consistent approach, they are very good at making moves during industry crises, thereby building their own antifragility. During industry downturns, not only is the cost of recruiting new members low, but they also use this to promote their own robustness. Over time, this has fostered a strong community consensus within Hyperliquid. The initial anti-VC narrative emphasized self-funded market making and entrepreneurship. Although it still allied with MM and had VCs purchase tokens, it had excellent public appeal and attracted early seed users. The marketing strategy during the development stage is not to recruit business development (BD) agents to attract KOLs and offer commissions, but to program them (Builder Code/HIP-3 Growth Mode), allowing users to fully customize them. Maximizing transparent data during the stable phase is Hyperliquid's latest contribution to blockchain beyond decentralization (few nodes and centralized governance by corporate will), allowing transparent data to represent the future of the blockchain; In the long term, HyperEVM should be open, not building an on-chain ecosystem based on human trust, but rather driving ecosystem development through permissionless access. The problem lies in the long-term strategy. The interests of the Hyperliquid Foundation and $HYPE are completely aligned, but to some extent, HyperEVM has the ulterior motive of prioritizing the development of its own token and ecosystem. This is understandable, as on-chain ecosystems are inherently a game of exchanging liquidity for growth. Governance mechanisms have failed to keep pace with the real-world demands of technological innovation. From Satoshi Nakamoto's departure to Vitalik's advocacy and rejection of DAOs, and then to the foundation model, public blockchain governance is still in the process of continuous experimentation. In a sense, the Vault Curator is also a manifestation of the contradiction between technology and mechanism, constantly absorbing the real governance system to move onto the chain. Lawyers + executives + business development, the problems of large companies on the chain are more abstract than those in Silicon Valley and Zhongguancun. The Hyperliquid team is at least closer to the technical characteristics of blockchain in terms of "everything is programmable". On-chain trustlessness is natural and there is no need to work hard to build a trust model. However, this approach still requires additional impetus on HyperCore, such as the management of HLP, which may have to be manually operated in times of crisis. At least at this stage, HyperEVM has not truly achieved "no access" in terms of governance mechanisms and liquidity. This does not mean that Hyperliquid still imposes technical restrictions on it, but rather that its legitimacy has not yet been fully opened to the community. We will witness the co-evolution of HyperEVM and $HYPE in the impending bear market, or the degeneration of Hyperliquid into Perp DEX. Conclusion Our ETH, Hyperliquid issue. Ethereum has an incredibly strong foundation. Despite the transitions from PoW to PoS, from L2 scaling to L1 scaling, and the impact of Solana in the DeFi field and Hyperliquid in the DEX field, it still maintains an unshakeable market position. Moreover, $ETH has already emerged from the bull-bear cycle, but $HYPE has not yet experienced a true bear market test. Sentiment is a very valuable consensus, and there is not much time left for $HYPE and HyperEVM to align.

Misalignment: Ethereum is bleeding, Hyperliquid is stalling.

2025/11/25 09:00

Binance's Aster attack on Hyperliquid's open interest and trading volume, along with the subsequent attacks on HLP by $JELLYJELLY and $POPCAT, are merely minor ailments.

Amidst the booming HIP-3 growth mode, the rumored BLP (lending protocol), and the positive news of $USDH actively staking 1 million $HYPE tokens to become aligned quote assets, Hyperliquid has revealed its own cracks—the HyperEVM ecosystem and $HYPE are not yet aligned.

Alignment is not complicated. Under normal circumstances, the HyperEVM ecosystem consumes $HYPE, and $HYPE will also support the development of the HyperEVM ecosystem.

This is an abnormal situation. The Hyperliquid Foundation's focus remains on the use of $HYPE in the spot, contract, and HIP-3 markets of HyperCore, while the development of the HyperEVM ecosystem remains a second-class citizen.

Earlier, a third party proposed the HIP-5 proposal, hoping to allocate some funds from the $HYPE buyback fund to support ecosystem project tokens. However, this proposal was met with overall rejection and skepticism from the community. This points to a harsh reality: the current price of $HYPE is entirely supported by HyperCore market buybacks and has no spare capacity to support the HyperEVM ecosystem.

Lessons from Others: Ethereum's Successes and Failures in Scaling

The development of a blockchain involves three main entities: the main token (BTC/ETH/HYPE), the foundation (DAO, spiritual leader, company), and ecosystem project teams.

The future of the blockchain hinges on the interaction model between the main token and ecosystem projects.

  1. Main token ⇔ Ecosystem: Two-way interaction is the healthiest approach. Ecosystem development requires the main token, and the main token empowers ecosystem projects. SOL is currently doing the best in this regard.
  2. Main token -> ecosystem; the main token empowers the ecosystem in one direction; after the main token TGE, everyone disperses, as is typical of Monad or Story.
  3. Ecosystem -> Main Token, the main token drains ecosystem projects, and the ecosystem is in a state of competition and cooperation with the main token.

The evolution of the relationship between Ethereum, its DeFi projects, and L2 is the most direct and can reflect the current state of HyperEVM and its potential for future breakthroughs.

According to 1kx research, the top 20 DeFi protocols account for about 70% of on-chain revenue, but their valuations are far lower than those of underlying public chains. The theory of fat protocols still holds sway, and people trust Uniswap and stablecoins on Ethereum more than Hyperliquid and USDe alone.

Not to mention that Vitalik has long "hated" DeFi but can't live without it, and eventually awkwardly came up with the theory of low-risk DeFi. Many DeFi protocols have tried to build their own portals, from dYdX V4 to MakerDAO's EndGame plan in 2023, with technology choices spanning AltVM systems such as Cosmos and Solana.

Then came Vitalik's public sale of $MKR. Beyond the interaction between the main token and the ecosystem, people have long underestimated the "official" legitimacy of public chains, especially the role of spiritual leaders.

Vitalik's Ethereum Foundation (EF) has long been laissez-faire towards DeFi, focusing instead on metaphysical philosophical concepts. This approach, where the two sides fight like the snipe and the clam, allows the fisherman to profit, and the rise of the Solana DeFi ecosystem is not unrelated to this. Ultimately, Hyperliquid, with its exchange + public chain model, has entered a new phase of competition among public chains.

Solana's impact on Ethereum has drawn criticism of Vitalik and EF, but beyond DeFi, the gains and losses of L2 Scaling are more intriguing. The L2/Rollup route has not failed technically, but the diversion of L1 revenue has put ETH into a downward cycle.

Image caption: ETH Dream: L2 Scaling -> L1 Scaling

Image source: @zuoyeweb3

When Ethereum L1 encountered scaling demands following the DeFi boom, Vitalik Buterin designated a scaling route centered on Rollups and went all in on the long-term application value of ZK, guiding the industry, capital, and talent toward ZK Rollups with FOMO, creating countless wealth effects or tragedies from 2020 to 2024.

However, one thing is certain: DeFi is a real product aimed at end consumers. The continuous launch of L2 is essentially consuming Ethereum's L1 infrastructure resources, which means dividing ETH's value capture ability. 2024 will mark the end of L2/Rollup, and 2025 will see a return to the L1 Scaling route.

After a four-year absence, he has returned, still primarily focusing on L1.

Image caption: Speeding up and reducing fees hurts its own revenue.

Image source: @1kxnetwork

On the technical level, ZK and L2/Rollup have indeed significantly reduced the burden of L1, and the speed increase and fee reduction have indeed benefited participants, including ordinary users. However, in addition to the competitive and cooperative relationship between public chains and DeFi (applications), on the economic level, a complex triangular relationship between public chains and L2 applications has been added out of thin air, ultimately creating a lose-lose-lose situation.

Ethereum's revenue is declining due to L2 caches, the wealth effect is being dispersed due to excessive L2 caches, and L2 caches are being diverted as applications continue to expand.

Ultimately, Hyperliquid ended the dispute with a unified stance of "public chain as application, application as transaction," and Vitalik also lowered his arrogant head, reorganized EF (Ethereum Foundation), and embraced user experience again.

During the transition from L2 to L1, the technological choices made at certain points in time, such as Scroll's emphasis on four ZK EVMs and Espresso's bet on decentralized L2 sorters, were ultimately proven false. Brevis's recent attention stems from Vitalik's renewed emphasis on the importance of ZK for privacy, and has little to do with Rollup.

The fate of a project depends on both its own efforts and the course of history.

Amidst a dazzling array of victories, Hyperliquid, having achieved one triumph after another, is once again facing Ethereum's dilemma: how should it manage the relationship between its main token and its ecosystem?

To spark discussion: Alignment selection in HyperEVM

In the article "Building HyperEVM", I introduced Hyperliquid's unique development path: first, we created the controllable HyperCore, and then the open HyperEVM, connecting the two with $HYPE.

In recent developments, the Hyperliquid Foundation has adhered to a token economics centered on empowering $HYPE, with HyperCore as the core and multiple HyperEVM ecosystems developing together.

This leads to the core concern of this article: How should HyperEVM forge a distinctive development path?

The BSC ecosystem is an appendage of Binance's main site and $BNB. PancakeSwap and ListaDAO on it also fluctuate with Binance's will, so there is no competitive relationship between BNB and BNB Chain.

Even a powerful platform like Ethereum cannot maintain a long-term balance between ETH and the free and prosperous ecosystem. In comparison, Hyperliquid's existing problems can be broken down as follows:

  1. Without establishing a collaborative relationship between HyperEVM and HyperCore, HyperEVM's position is awkward.
  2. $HYPE itself is the only concern of the Hyperliquid Foundation, leaving HyperEVM ecosystem projects somewhat at a loss.

Before answering the question, let's look at the current state of HyperEVM. It's very clear that the HyperEVM ecosystem projects are not keeping up with the Hyperliquid team's thinking.

Image caption: HyperEVM stablecoin market share

Image source: @AIC_Hugo

The USDH team election triggered FOMO among many stablecoin teams, but HyperEVM does not have a significant advantage over existing stablecoin projects. BLP also has potential conflicts of interest with existing lending protocols, and the most obvious issue is the HIP-5 proposal incident, which has resulted in virtually no support for HYPE tokens to empower ecosystem projects.

$ATOM represents the Cosmos team's bitter pill to swallow, while $HYPE is a mirage for ecosystem projects—no matter how much they do, it's all just consumables.

A classic question arises for HyperEVM ecosystem projects: what if Hyperliquid does the same thing?

Image caption: Hyperliquid flywheel

Image source: @zuoyeweb3

Looking at the Hyperliquid team's consistent approach, they are very good at making moves during industry crises, thereby building their own antifragility. During industry downturns, not only is the cost of recruiting new members low, but they also use this to promote their own robustness. Over time, this has fostered a strong community consensus within Hyperliquid.

  • The initial anti-VC narrative emphasized self-funded market making and entrepreneurship. Although it still allied with MM and had VCs purchase tokens, it had excellent public appeal and attracted early seed users.
  • The marketing strategy during the development stage is not to recruit business development (BD) agents to attract KOLs and offer commissions, but to program them (Builder Code/HIP-3 Growth Mode), allowing users to fully customize them.
  • Maximizing transparent data during the stable phase is Hyperliquid's latest contribution to blockchain beyond decentralization (few nodes and centralized governance by corporate will), allowing transparent data to represent the future of the blockchain;
  • In the long term, HyperEVM should be open, not building an on-chain ecosystem based on human trust, but rather driving ecosystem development through permissionless access.

The problem lies in the long-term strategy. The interests of the Hyperliquid Foundation and $HYPE are completely aligned, but to some extent, HyperEVM has the ulterior motive of prioritizing the development of its own token and ecosystem. This is understandable, as on-chain ecosystems are inherently a game of exchanging liquidity for growth.

Governance mechanisms have failed to keep pace with the real-world demands of technological innovation. From Satoshi Nakamoto's departure to Vitalik's advocacy and rejection of DAOs, and then to the foundation model, public blockchain governance is still in the process of continuous experimentation.

In a sense, the Vault Curator is also a manifestation of the contradiction between technology and mechanism, constantly absorbing the real governance system to move onto the chain. Lawyers + executives + business development, the problems of large companies on the chain are more abstract than those in Silicon Valley and Zhongguancun.

The Hyperliquid team is at least closer to the technical characteristics of blockchain in terms of "everything is programmable". On-chain trustlessness is natural and there is no need to work hard to build a trust model. However, this approach still requires additional impetus on HyperCore, such as the management of HLP, which may have to be manually operated in times of crisis.

At least at this stage, HyperEVM has not truly achieved "no access" in terms of governance mechanisms and liquidity. This does not mean that Hyperliquid still imposes technical restrictions on it, but rather that its legitimacy has not yet been fully opened to the community.

We will witness the co-evolution of HyperEVM and $HYPE in the impending bear market, or the degeneration of Hyperliquid into Perp DEX.

Conclusion

Ethereum has an incredibly strong foundation. Despite the transitions from PoW to PoS, from L2 scaling to L1 scaling, and the impact of Solana in the DeFi field and Hyperliquid in the DEX field, it still maintains an unshakeable market position.

Moreover, $ETH has already emerged from the bull-bear cycle, but $HYPE has not yet experienced a true bear market test. Sentiment is a very valuable consensus, and there is not much time left for $HYPE and HyperEVM to align.

Disclaimer: The articles reposted on this site are sourced from public platforms and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not necessarily reflect the views of MEXC. All rights remain with the original authors. If you believe any content infringes on third-party rights, please contact service@support.mexc.com for removal. MEXC makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content and is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided. The content does not constitute financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation or endorsement by MEXC.

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Crucial Fed Rate Cut: October Probability Surges to 94%

Crucial Fed Rate Cut: October Probability Surges to 94%

BitcoinWorld Crucial Fed Rate Cut: October Probability Surges to 94% The financial world is buzzing with a significant development: the probability of a Fed rate cut in October has just seen a dramatic increase. This isn’t just a minor shift; it’s a monumental change that could ripple through global markets, including the dynamic cryptocurrency space. For anyone tracking economic indicators and their impact on investments, this update from the U.S. interest rate futures market is absolutely crucial. What Just Happened? Unpacking the FOMC Statement’s Impact Following the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, market sentiment has decisively shifted. Before the announcement, the U.S. interest rate futures market had priced in a 71.6% chance of an October rate cut. However, after the statement, this figure surged to an astounding 94%. This jump indicates that traders and analysts are now overwhelmingly confident that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates next month. Such a high probability suggests a strong consensus emerging from the Fed’s latest communications and economic outlook. A Fed rate cut typically means cheaper borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which can stimulate economic activity. But what does this really signify for investors, especially those in the digital asset realm? Why is a Fed Rate Cut So Significant for Markets? When the Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates, it sends powerful signals across the entire financial ecosystem. A rate cut generally implies a more accommodative monetary policy, often enacted to boost economic growth or combat deflationary pressures. Impact on Traditional Markets: Stocks: Lower interest rates can make borrowing cheaper for companies, potentially boosting earnings and making stocks more attractive compared to bonds. Bonds: Existing bonds with higher yields might become more valuable, but new bonds will likely offer lower returns. Dollar Strength: A rate cut can weaken the U.S. dollar, making exports cheaper and potentially benefiting multinational corporations. Potential for Cryptocurrency Markets: The cryptocurrency market, while often seen as uncorrelated, can still react significantly to macro-economic shifts. A Fed rate cut could be interpreted as: Increased Risk Appetite: With traditional investments offering lower returns, investors might seek higher-yielding or more volatile assets like cryptocurrencies. Inflation Hedge Narrative: If rate cuts are perceived as a precursor to inflation, assets like Bitcoin, often dubbed “digital gold,” could gain traction as an inflation hedge. Liquidity Influx: A more accommodative monetary environment generally means more liquidity in the financial system, some of which could flow into digital assets. Looking Ahead: What Could This Mean for Your Portfolio? While the 94% probability for a Fed rate cut in October is compelling, it’s essential to consider the nuances. Market probabilities can shift, and the Fed’s ultimate decision will depend on incoming economic data. Actionable Insights: Stay Informed: Continue to monitor economic reports, inflation data, and future Fed statements. Diversify: A diversified portfolio can help mitigate risks associated with sudden market shifts. Assess Risk Tolerance: Understand how a potential rate cut might affect your specific investments and adjust your strategy accordingly. This increased likelihood of a Fed rate cut presents both opportunities and challenges. It underscores the interconnectedness of traditional finance and the emerging digital asset space. Investors should remain vigilant and prepared for potential volatility. The financial landscape is always evolving, and the significant surge in the probability of an October Fed rate cut is a clear signal of impending change. From stimulating economic growth to potentially fueling interest in digital assets, the implications are vast. Staying informed and strategically positioned will be key as we approach this crucial decision point. The market is now almost certain of a rate cut, and understanding its potential ripple effects is paramount for every investor. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Q1: What is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)? A1: The FOMC is the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve System. It sets the federal funds rate, which influences other interest rates and economic conditions. Q2: How does a Fed rate cut impact the U.S. dollar? A2: A rate cut typically makes the U.S. dollar less attractive to foreign investors seeking higher returns, potentially leading to a weakening of the dollar against other currencies. Q3: Why might a Fed rate cut be good for cryptocurrency? A3: Lower interest rates can reduce the appeal of traditional investments, encouraging investors to seek higher returns in alternative assets like cryptocurrencies. It can also be seen as a sign of increased liquidity or potential inflation, benefiting assets like Bitcoin. Q4: Is a 94% probability a guarantee of a rate cut? A4: While a 94% probability is very high, it is not a guarantee. Market probabilities reflect current sentiment and data, but the Federal Reserve’s final decision will depend on all available economic information leading up to their meeting. Q5: What should investors do in response to this news? A5: Investors should stay informed about economic developments, review their portfolio diversification, and assess their risk tolerance. Consider how potential changes in interest rates might affect different asset classes and adjust strategies as needed. Did you find this analysis helpful? Share this article with your network to keep others informed about the potential impact of the upcoming Fed rate cut and its implications for the financial markets! To learn more about the latest crypto market trends, explore our article on key developments shaping Bitcoin price action. This post Crucial Fed Rate Cut: October Probability Surges to 94% first appeared on BitcoinWorld.
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Coinstats2025/09/18 02:25