Author: zhou, ChainCatcher In the past month, spot ETFs for a series of emerging crypto projects, including DOGE, XRP, Solana (SOL), Litecoin (LTC), Hedera (HBAR), and Chainlink (LINK), have been approved for listing. Contrary to market expectations, the prices of these assets have not surged due to the listing of ETFs. The phenomenon of continuous capital inflows but significant price corrections raises the question: can the approval of ETFs still provide long-term and effective support for cryptocurrency prices? I. Price Pressure: Short-Term Sentiment and Speculative Trading Cleansing Between late October and November, the market saw a surge in the listing of emerging crypto asset ETFs. However, according to SoSoValue data, a disconnect between continuous capital inflows and price crashes was prevalent among these assets. Solana (SOL): Since its listing at the end of October, the SOL ETF has recorded net inflows for four consecutive weeks, with total net assets currently reaching $918 million. Bitwise and Grayscale ETFs contributed $631 million and $148 million respectively. However, the SOL spot price has fallen from approximately $184 on October 31st to around $143 currently, a drop of over 20%. XRP: The first XRP ETF launched on November 13th, with a trading volume of $59.22 million on its first day, followed by continuous net inflows starting the next day. However, the spot price of XRP fell by more than 20% from $2.38 on November 13th, and is currently hovering around $2.2. HBAR: Since its listing on October 28, the HBAR ETF has seen net inflows for the fifth consecutive week, with total net assets reaching $65.49 million, but the spot price of HBAR has fallen by nearly 20%. DOGE: On its first day of trading on November 24, the DOGE ETF saw no net inflows and a trading volume of $1.41 million. The total net assets of the two currently listed DOGE spot ETFs are $6.48 million. There has been no significant fluctuation in the price of DOGE. LTC: The LTC spot ETF was listed on November 5th, and has so far seen a total net inflow of $7.26 million. However, in the past month, there have been several days with zero net inflows. As a result, the price of LTC has fallen by about 14% since the Canary LTC spot ETF was listed on October 28th. It can be observed that, except for the Litecoin ETF, other cryptocurrency ETFs have all shown a continuous inflow of funds, but the prices of these ETFs have invariably fallen or consolidated. The reason for this decoupling may be the combined effect of macroeconomic factors and speculative behavior. First, it must be acknowledged that the overall environment of the crypto market during the period of ETF approval was not one of heightened bullish sentiment. The performance of core assets confirms this: the Bitcoin ETF saw net outflows of $3.48 billion in November, and the Ethereum ETF saw net outflows of $1.42 billion. These massive outflows from core assets created strong overall negative sentiment and macroeconomic headwinds, overshadowing the incremental positive impact of the emerging ETFs. In this environment, the "buy the rumor, sell the fact" mentality led speculators to sell off their holdings to take profits when the positive news materialized, creating short-term selling pressure. Secondly, during market downturns, the selling pressure on altcoins with relatively poor liquidity is amplified. Compared to Bitcoin, XRP, SOL, and other cryptocurrencies have shallower market depth and limited capacity to absorb sell-offs. At the same time, the current inflow of funds is relatively slow, and institutions are still in an observation period; their gradual allocation pace is unlikely to immediately offset the concentrated selling pressure from whales and speculators. In summary, the short-term decoupling between ETF inflows and cryptocurrency prices is a result of a combination of factors, including speculative cleansing, macroeconomic headwinds, and the lag in institutional fund deployment. However, this does not mean that the positive factors have failed, but rather reminds investors that the value of ETFs must be sought from a longer-term perspective and within the institutional portfolio structure. II. Long-term value: Institutional allocation and continuous inflow of funds Since short-term currency price performance is affected by external factors, the value of ETFs needs to be examined from two core dimensions: the sustainability of institutional fund inflows and the differentiated competitive advantages of the assets themselves. This value is first reflected in the shift in attitude of traditional financial giants. Vanguard Group, one of the world's largest asset management companies, which had previously held a conservative stance on crypto assets, announced the opening of Bitcoin ETF trading. For years, its executives believed that cryptocurrencies lacked intrinsic value: they neither generated cash flow nor were they suitable for long-term retirement strategies. They viewed digital assets as speculative tools, not core portfolio investments. The company rejected such products after Bitcoin ETFs were launched in January 2024 and even restricted clients from purchasing competing funds. Vanguard now allows investors to trade BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF, transforming its role from critic to distributor. This move undoubtedly signals to the market that ETFs, as compliant investment tools, have broken down the last major barrier in the traditional financial world. Despite the price crash, institutional investors' willingness to allocate assets remains strong. For example, the SOL ETF and HBAR ETF have seen net inflows for five consecutive weeks; the Canary XRP ETF's total net asset value has reached $355 million, while Bitwise and Grayscale's ETFs each have net assets of approximately $200 million. This sustained and substantial accumulation of funds is a key indicator of the long-term positive outlook for ETFs. Analysts estimate that even though their size pales in comparison to Bitcoin's, altcoin ETFs could still attract $10 billion to $20 billion in inflows by mid-2026. In institutional asset allocation strategies, the competitive advantage of asset differentiation is also key. For example, Solana's staking ETF offers yields of up to 7%, and XRP's payment funds, among other products, may attract specific interest from investors seeking diversified investments or passive income. Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale, has stated that Solana ETFs could absorb at least 5% of the total supply of Solana tokens within the next one to two years. However, this optimism is being strongly challenged by market giants. BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, holds a highly cautious and negative view on altcoin ETFs. Robert Mitchnick, head of digital assets at BlackRock, stated that most altcoins are worthless and emphasized the risks of investing in a wide variety of immature digital assets, therefore they focus on mature cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas also supports this view, believing that this stance explains BlackRock's reluctance to diversify its portfolio. This cautious stance carries potential risks. K33 Research states that without BlackRock's involvement, total inflows into altcoin ETFs could decrease by 50% to 70%. Meanwhile, the CEO of CryptoQuant warns that altcoin liquidity is rapidly declining, and only projects capable of opening new liquidity channels (especially through ETFs) will survive in the market. Furthermore, the experience of the LTC spot ETF serves as a prime example of what not to do, with zero net inflows for several consecutive business days since its listing. CoinShares, one of Europe's largest digital asset management companies, has also officially withdrawn its applications to the SEC for XRP, Solana Staking, and Litecoin ETFs, demonstrating that even large asset management firms remain wary of single-asset ETFs with intense competition and limited profit margins. CoinShares CEO Jean-Marie Mognetti stated that, given the dominance of traditional financial giants in the single-asset crypto ETF market, the company will reallocate resources to more innovative and profitable products over the next 12-18 months. Conclusion The divergence among institutions precisely confirms that the era of crypto asset ETFs is entering a tiered allocation phase. On one hand, Vanguard Group's opening of Bitcoin ETF trading symbolizes the mainstream financial sector's eventual acceptance of the crypto market; on the other hand, CoinShares' withdrawal of its application and BlackRock's cautious attitude towards altcoins demonstrate institutional vigilance regarding the quality of underlying assets and competition within the crypto space. In summary, the approval of ETFs is undoubtedly a significant positive factor in both its essence and long-term impact. The short-term decline in coin prices does not mean that the positive factor has failed, but rather that the way it is realized has been distorted by short-term market forces.Author: zhou, ChainCatcher In the past month, spot ETFs for a series of emerging crypto projects, including DOGE, XRP, Solana (SOL), Litecoin (LTC), Hedera (HBAR), and Chainlink (LINK), have been approved for listing. Contrary to market expectations, the prices of these assets have not surged due to the listing of ETFs. The phenomenon of continuous capital inflows but significant price corrections raises the question: can the approval of ETFs still provide long-term and effective support for cryptocurrency prices? I. Price Pressure: Short-Term Sentiment and Speculative Trading Cleansing Between late October and November, the market saw a surge in the listing of emerging crypto asset ETFs. However, according to SoSoValue data, a disconnect between continuous capital inflows and price crashes was prevalent among these assets. Solana (SOL): Since its listing at the end of October, the SOL ETF has recorded net inflows for four consecutive weeks, with total net assets currently reaching $918 million. Bitwise and Grayscale ETFs contributed $631 million and $148 million respectively. However, the SOL spot price has fallen from approximately $184 on October 31st to around $143 currently, a drop of over 20%. XRP: The first XRP ETF launched on November 13th, with a trading volume of $59.22 million on its first day, followed by continuous net inflows starting the next day. However, the spot price of XRP fell by more than 20% from $2.38 on November 13th, and is currently hovering around $2.2. HBAR: Since its listing on October 28, the HBAR ETF has seen net inflows for the fifth consecutive week, with total net assets reaching $65.49 million, but the spot price of HBAR has fallen by nearly 20%. DOGE: On its first day of trading on November 24, the DOGE ETF saw no net inflows and a trading volume of $1.41 million. The total net assets of the two currently listed DOGE spot ETFs are $6.48 million. There has been no significant fluctuation in the price of DOGE. LTC: The LTC spot ETF was listed on November 5th, and has so far seen a total net inflow of $7.26 million. However, in the past month, there have been several days with zero net inflows. As a result, the price of LTC has fallen by about 14% since the Canary LTC spot ETF was listed on October 28th. It can be observed that, except for the Litecoin ETF, other cryptocurrency ETFs have all shown a continuous inflow of funds, but the prices of these ETFs have invariably fallen or consolidated. The reason for this decoupling may be the combined effect of macroeconomic factors and speculative behavior. First, it must be acknowledged that the overall environment of the crypto market during the period of ETF approval was not one of heightened bullish sentiment. The performance of core assets confirms this: the Bitcoin ETF saw net outflows of $3.48 billion in November, and the Ethereum ETF saw net outflows of $1.42 billion. These massive outflows from core assets created strong overall negative sentiment and macroeconomic headwinds, overshadowing the incremental positive impact of the emerging ETFs. In this environment, the "buy the rumor, sell the fact" mentality led speculators to sell off their holdings to take profits when the positive news materialized, creating short-term selling pressure. Secondly, during market downturns, the selling pressure on altcoins with relatively poor liquidity is amplified. Compared to Bitcoin, XRP, SOL, and other cryptocurrencies have shallower market depth and limited capacity to absorb sell-offs. At the same time, the current inflow of funds is relatively slow, and institutions are still in an observation period; their gradual allocation pace is unlikely to immediately offset the concentrated selling pressure from whales and speculators. In summary, the short-term decoupling between ETF inflows and cryptocurrency prices is a result of a combination of factors, including speculative cleansing, macroeconomic headwinds, and the lag in institutional fund deployment. However, this does not mean that the positive factors have failed, but rather reminds investors that the value of ETFs must be sought from a longer-term perspective and within the institutional portfolio structure. II. Long-term value: Institutional allocation and continuous inflow of funds Since short-term currency price performance is affected by external factors, the value of ETFs needs to be examined from two core dimensions: the sustainability of institutional fund inflows and the differentiated competitive advantages of the assets themselves. This value is first reflected in the shift in attitude of traditional financial giants. Vanguard Group, one of the world's largest asset management companies, which had previously held a conservative stance on crypto assets, announced the opening of Bitcoin ETF trading. For years, its executives believed that cryptocurrencies lacked intrinsic value: they neither generated cash flow nor were they suitable for long-term retirement strategies. They viewed digital assets as speculative tools, not core portfolio investments. The company rejected such products after Bitcoin ETFs were launched in January 2024 and even restricted clients from purchasing competing funds. Vanguard now allows investors to trade BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF, transforming its role from critic to distributor. This move undoubtedly signals to the market that ETFs, as compliant investment tools, have broken down the last major barrier in the traditional financial world. Despite the price crash, institutional investors' willingness to allocate assets remains strong. For example, the SOL ETF and HBAR ETF have seen net inflows for five consecutive weeks; the Canary XRP ETF's total net asset value has reached $355 million, while Bitwise and Grayscale's ETFs each have net assets of approximately $200 million. This sustained and substantial accumulation of funds is a key indicator of the long-term positive outlook for ETFs. Analysts estimate that even though their size pales in comparison to Bitcoin's, altcoin ETFs could still attract $10 billion to $20 billion in inflows by mid-2026. In institutional asset allocation strategies, the competitive advantage of asset differentiation is also key. For example, Solana's staking ETF offers yields of up to 7%, and XRP's payment funds, among other products, may attract specific interest from investors seeking diversified investments or passive income. Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale, has stated that Solana ETFs could absorb at least 5% of the total supply of Solana tokens within the next one to two years. However, this optimism is being strongly challenged by market giants. BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, holds a highly cautious and negative view on altcoin ETFs. Robert Mitchnick, head of digital assets at BlackRock, stated that most altcoins are worthless and emphasized the risks of investing in a wide variety of immature digital assets, therefore they focus on mature cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas also supports this view, believing that this stance explains BlackRock's reluctance to diversify its portfolio. This cautious stance carries potential risks. K33 Research states that without BlackRock's involvement, total inflows into altcoin ETFs could decrease by 50% to 70%. Meanwhile, the CEO of CryptoQuant warns that altcoin liquidity is rapidly declining, and only projects capable of opening new liquidity channels (especially through ETFs) will survive in the market. Furthermore, the experience of the LTC spot ETF serves as a prime example of what not to do, with zero net inflows for several consecutive business days since its listing. CoinShares, one of Europe's largest digital asset management companies, has also officially withdrawn its applications to the SEC for XRP, Solana Staking, and Litecoin ETFs, demonstrating that even large asset management firms remain wary of single-asset ETFs with intense competition and limited profit margins. CoinShares CEO Jean-Marie Mognetti stated that, given the dominance of traditional financial giants in the single-asset crypto ETF market, the company will reallocate resources to more innovative and profitable products over the next 12-18 months. Conclusion The divergence among institutions precisely confirms that the era of crypto asset ETFs is entering a tiered allocation phase. On one hand, Vanguard Group's opening of Bitcoin ETF trading symbolizes the mainstream financial sector's eventual acceptance of the crypto market; on the other hand, CoinShares' withdrawal of its application and BlackRock's cautious attitude towards altcoins demonstrate institutional vigilance regarding the quality of underlying assets and competition within the crypto space. In summary, the approval of ETFs is undoubtedly a significant positive factor in both its essence and long-term impact. The short-term decline in coin prices does not mean that the positive factor has failed, but rather that the way it is realized has been distorted by short-term market forces.