What’s Behind Barclays’ Bearish 2026 Crypto Market Prediction

TLDR

• Barclays predicts lower crypto trading volumes in 2026 with no clear catalysts to drive market activity
• Spot trading volumes have cooled sharply, creating revenue challenges for exchanges like Coinbase and Robinhood
• The CLARITY Act could provide regulatory clarity by defining the line between digital commodities and securities
• Coinbase faces headwinds from declining spot volumes and rising costs, with Barclays cutting its price target to $291
• Tokenization initiatives remain early-stage and unlikely to impact earnings in 2026

Barclays has released a year-end report forecasting a challenging 2026 for cryptocurrency markets. The bank expects trading volumes to trend downward with no clear catalysts to reverse the cooling activity.

The prediction comes as spot trading volumes have fallen across major platforms. This slowdown creates revenue pressure for retail-focused exchanges like Coinbase and Robinhood that rely heavily on trading activity.

Barclays analysts stated that spot crypto trading volumes appear headed for a down year in fiscal 2026. The bank sees no obvious factors that might change this trajectory in the near term.

Crypto markets typically respond to major events rather than steady growth patterns. Past activity spikes occurred during the March 2024 launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and after the November pro-crypto presidential election results.

Without similar catalysts on the horizon, Barclays expects market activity to remain subdued. The bank notes that investor enthusiasm has faded from earlier bull market levels.

Regulatory Developments Could Shape Future Activity

The pending CLARITY Act represents one potential factor that could influence the market. This legislation would define the boundary between digital commodities and securities.

The bill would also clarify which agency regulates different crypto assets. The SEC and CFTC would have more defined jurisdictions under the proposed law.

If passed, the CLARITY Act could reduce operational uncertainty for crypto companies. Clearer rules might enable new product launches, particularly for tokenized assets.

However, Barclays cautions the legislation must pass the Senate and withstand possible legal challenges. The bank also notes that much political optimism may already be reflected in current prices.

Coinbase Faces Headwinds Despite Expansion Efforts

Coinbase remains central to Barclays’ sector analysis. The exchange is expanding into derivatives and tokenized equity trading while making recent acquisitions.

Despite these growth initiatives, Barclays sees challenges ahead for the company. Declining spot volumes and rising operating costs create pressure on the business model.

The bank lowered its Coinbase stock price target to $291. This revision reflects a more conservative earnings outlook for the company.

Tokenization continues attracting interest from crypto companies and traditional finance firms. BlackRock and Robinhood have been testing products in this space.

Barclays views tokenization as early-stage technology. The bank expects minimal earnings impact from these initiatives in 2026.

Retail trading activity has decreased from previous peak levels. Companies are now focusing on longer-term investments in tokenized finance and compliance systems.

The U.S. political environment has become more favorable for digital assets after recent elections. Regulatory frameworks are shifting from enforcement-focused approaches to clearer guidelines.

Barclays describes 2026 as likely transitional for crypto markets. Lower retail participation and absent immediate growth drivers characterize the current environment.

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