Bitcoin Trading at Relief Price, Here’s Good and Bad Scenarios to Watch

Key Insights

• Analyst expect to see BTC climb higher if price hold above TMMP of about $81,500 and AVIV stabilizes.
• Michael van de Poppe says BTC price breakout above $88,000 would invalidate downtrend.
• Bitcoin LTH are accumulating profits, a common move in mature bull market.

Bitcoin (BTC) is gradually gaining momentum, as seen in the price climbing above $86,000 on the daily chart. Despite the BTC price relief, the TMMP and AVIV are two key metrics to watch for future outcomes.

Analyzing the Bitcoin Relief Price

CryptoQuant analyst MorenDV highlighted that Bitcoin is sitting at a level that matters beyond looks. He explained this using two key metrics, True Market Mean Price (TMMP) and AVIV Ratio.

The TMMP metric calculates the average price at which investors, excluding miners, have acquired Bitcoin.

This zone is important because it acts like a psychological line in the sand.

When the price of BTC is above TMMP, it proves most investors are comfortable. This encourages holding or buying dips, as pullbacks are seen as buying opportunities.

However, when the price falls below TMMP, many investors go into loss. This can turn the level into resistance on rebounds, because holders who bought near their average cost may sell to cut losses.

The analyst noted that TMMP is around $81,500. As of this writing, Bitcoin price was trading around $86,415, so the coin is holding above TMMP, a bullish sign for now.

The second metric, AVIV ratio, compares active market valuation with realized valuation, focusing only on investor profits.

Higher AVIV means more active trading and profit-taking, often signaling overheating or peaks. On the other hand, lower AVIV signals quieter rebalancing and reduced volatility.

The chart posted by the analyst showed AVIV levels resembling mid-cycle transitions in past bull markets.

These were periods of sideways price action, compressed volatility, and quiet position adjustments.

The bullish case is for BTC to hold above TMMP of about $81,500 and AVIV stabilizes. This would mean investors are defending their cost basis, absorbing selling pressure, and quietly accumulating.

The bearish case, however, is if the price breaks below TMMP and AVIV keeps compressing downward. This would signal fading profitability, weakening confidence, and potential deeper correction.

Implications of BTC Price Rejection

Another popular market analyst, Michael van de Poppe, has also commented on BTC price outlook.

The analyst shared a BTC chart from TradingView that showed BTC faced clear rejection at the $88,000 mark. He explained that the rejection means that the BTC price downtrend is still intact on lower timeframes.

Van de Poppe, however, noted that a decisive breakout above $88,000 would invalidate the downtrend, signaling renewed upward momentum.

If no breakout, he expects the downtrend to continue. He predicted a test at $83,000 and $80,000 for liquidity.

The analyst added that macro events can increase volatility, thin liquidity, and amplify moves.

A key event around this month was the FOMC meeting, where the Fed cut rates by 0.25%. The post-Fed period often brings risk-off sentiment, pressuring digital assets like BTC.

Another data release expected this week is the US CPI inflation report scheduled for December 18.

Long-Term BTC Holders Lock in Profits

Furthermore, data from CryptoQuant showed that long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) are selling their coins to lock in profits.

Specifically, CryptoQuant revealed a spike in the 30-day LTH distribution.

Historically, such spikes often coincide with macro tops rather than bottoms, as seasoned holders lock in gains.

They added that LTH supply has rolled over from record highs, while spot trades were well above the LTH realized price.

Unlike bear markets where LTHs sell at losses, this is profit-taking on aged coins, a sign of confidence in cashing out highs.

Analysts at CryptoQuant view this as late-stage bull market behavior, where LTHs are distributed to new buyers. Such moves have often preceded tops or extended corrections.