UA&P slashes Q4 growth forecast to 4.6%

THE University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) cut its fourth‑quarter growth forecast to 4.6% for the Philippines from its previous view of 5.3% in November.

In The Market Call released on Thursday, UA&P said if realized, this growth level would put the government’s target for the year of 5.5-6.5% far out of reach.

Among the positive for the period were “lower inflation, increased OFW (overseas Filipino workers) remittances and exports, lower interest rates, and a rebound in government spending,” it said.

“Helping job creation, exports may continue their healthy boost into the year-end.”

A corruption scandal involving flood control projects has triggered protests, slowed economic activity, and shaken investor confidence in the country.

In the first nine month, gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaged 5%, after a 4% reading in the third quarter when government spending was largely frozen while infrastructure spending came under scrutiny.

For the first 11 months, headline inflation averaged 1.6%, slightly below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) forecast of 1.7%.

“Year-on-year growth in government spending should see consumers open their bank accounts/e-wallets more generously than in Q3,” it said.

UA&P also said it expects the peso to close near the P58.50 level, though it may depreciate further into 2026.

The peso breached the P59-a-dollar mark several times since November and sank to a record low of P59.22 on Dec. 9.

“Employment will likely rise in the last two months of 2025 to meet higher consumer demand,” he said.

The Philippine Statistics Authority reports a jobless rate of 5% in October, up from 3.8% in the previous month and 3.9% a year earlier. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante