Het gonst weer eens van de geruchten. Krantenkoppen waarschuwen dat quantum computers binnenkort krachtig genoeg zijn om Bitcoin te kraken. Maar wie luistert naarHet gonst weer eens van de geruchten. Krantenkoppen waarschuwen dat quantum computers binnenkort krachtig genoeg zijn om Bitcoin te kraken. Maar wie luistert naar
Quantum computing: de nieuwe ‘bubble’ volgens de Bitcoin Astronaut en Adam Back
Het gonst weer eens van de geruchten. Krantenkoppen waarschuwen dat quantum computers binnenkort krachtig genoeg zijn om Bitcoin te kraken. Maar wie luistert naar de mensen die de techniek echt snappen, hoort een heel ander verhaal. Neem Satofishi, ofwel Chun Wang. We noemden hem eerder een ’travel documenter’, maar als commandant van de SpaceX Fram2-missie verdient hij de titel Bitcoin Astronaut. Deze astronaut, die binnenkort letterlijk boven de problemen zweeft, sluit zich volledig aan bij cypherpunk-legende Adam Back. Hun oordeel is helder: de angst voor quantum is een luchtbel. De fameuze secp256k1-beveiliging van Bitcoin gaat voorlopig nergens heen. Sterker nog, ze schatten dat we nog zeker 30 tot 50 jaar verwijderd zijn van een computer die Bitcoin daadwerkelijk kan bedreigen. If Moore’s law were to apply to quantum computing, it may take at least 30 to 50 years before quantum computers pose a practical threat to secp256k1. — Chun (@satofishi) December 21, 2025 Waarom quantum voorlopig geen gevaar is Om te begrijpen waarom de paniek overdreven is, moeten we even naar de techniek kijken zonder er een wiskundeles van te maken. In theorie kunnen quantum computers met ‘Shor’s algoritme’ privésleutels berekenen uit publieke sleutels. Dat klopt op papier. De praktijk is echter weerbarstig. Back en Wang wijzen op een detail dat vaak over het hoofd wordt gezien: de Wet van Moore gaat niet zomaar op voor qubits, de bouwstenen van een quantum computer. We hebben apparaten nodig met duizenden, misschien wel miljoenen stabiele qubits om cryptografie te breken. De huidige systemen zijn juist enorm instabiel. Ze maken voortdurend fouten. Het corrigeren van die fouten kost zoveel extra rekenkracht dat de netto vooruitgang minimaal is. Je probeert in feite een kluis te kraken met een rekenmachine die bij elke som een willekeurig ander antwoord geeft. JUST IN: Travel documenter @satofishi agrees with Adam Back (@adam3us), quantum computing is a "bubble" that won't crack Bitcoin's secp256k1 curve anytime soon, estimating 30-50 years if Moore's Law applies. Why it matters: This pushes back against quantum fears in crypto! pic.twitter.com/kw4MQsyxdv — Bitcoin Magazine NL (@BitcoinMagNL) December 22, 2025 Bangmakerij of reëel risico? Adam Back is stellig en noemt de huidige verhalen pure bangmakerij. Het past in de bekende hype-cyclus van de crypto-industrie. Verhalen over de ondergang van digitaal geld verkopen nu eenmaal beter dan een nuchtere analyse over een beveiligingsupdate over twintig jaar. Want dat is het andere punt waar de Bitcoin Astronaut op hamert. Bitcoin staat niet stil. Mochten quantum computers over veertig jaar toch een gevaar vormen, dan heeft het netwerk allang maatregelen genomen. Denk aan updates zoals Lamport signatures of andere post-quantum cryptografie. Het systeem kan zichzelf simpelweg ‘patchen’ tegen nieuwe dreigingen. Dertig jaar adempauze De schatting van 30 tot 50 jaar is niet zomaar een gok. Het is gebaseerd op het huidige tempo van technologische ontwikkeling en de enorme natuurkundige obstakels die nog overwonnen moeten worden. Zelfs als de rekenkracht elke twee jaar verdubbelt, duurt het nog decennia voordat we op een niveau zitten dat gevaarlijk is voor het netwerk. Zoals Chun Wang het ziet, is de kans groter dat we Mars koloniseren voordat een quantum computer je wallet leegrooft. Moet je je zorgen maken over je portfolio? Nee. De consensus tussen zwaargewichten als Adam Back en Satofishi is duidelijk. Quantum computing is op dit moment vooral een modewoord, een spookverhaal zonder tanden. De technologie is fascinerend, maar het idee dat Bitcoin morgen of volgend jaar breekt is sciencefiction. De enige lancering waar we op moeten letten is die van de astronaut zelf. HODL gerust verder. Best wallet - betrouwbare en anonieme wallet Best wallet - betrouwbare en anonieme wallet Meer dan 60 chains beschikbaar voor alle crypto Vroege toegang tot nieuwe projecten Hoge staking belongingen Lage transactiekosten Best wallet review Koop nu via Best Wallet Let op: cryptocurrency is een zeer volatiele en ongereguleerde investering. Doe je eigen onderzoek.
Het bericht Quantum computing: de nieuwe ‘bubble’ volgens de Bitcoin Astronaut en Adam Back is geschreven door Immanuel Rodulfo en verscheen als eerst op Bitcoinmagazine.nl.
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