Avalanche (AVAX) Faces Critical Weekly Test as Bulls Eye $20 Breakout

Avalanche (AVAX) is facing a critical weekly resistance level this week and is thus at a critical juncture as far as its short-term market structure is concerned. AVAX is trading around $12.38 as of January 23, 2026. It should be noted that AVAX has consistently failed to rally around this price point.

In a bullish case, a break and close above resistance levels could have a positive impact and pave the path for the upside target at $20, a level not seen in months. However, a break below this level could have the opposite effect and further reinforce the existing downtrend.

Source: DrBullZeus

In the case of a bearish view, further rejection of the price at the resistance level may cause the price to fall towards the $10 psychological support level, an area of interest for long-term market participants. If the price will close below $10 on the weekly charts, it may negatively impact the price’s recovery chances.

Also Read: Avalanche Validator Node Goes Live: AVAX Eyes $14.80–$21.00 Range

RSI and MACD Signal Ongoing Weakness

Momentum indicators suggest that Avalanche is under selling pressure, despite signs of exhaustion in the near term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently near 36 levels, indicates that Avalanche has a high probability of being in an oversold zone in the near term, before a potential relief rally can occur in AVAX.

Source: TradingView

The MACD continues to reflect bearish momentum as it remains below the signal line and continues to display red histograms. This reflects strong negative momentum and low levels of buying interest. Until a bullish MACD crossover is experienced, any upward moves are expected to meet resistance rather than initiating an upward trend.

EMA and Bollinger Bands Paint a Bearish Picture

Looking at the overall trend, it can be seen that the price remains significantly below all the key exponential moving averages (20 EMA, 50 EMA, 100 EMA, 200 EMA). This indicates that the overall trend is still on the negative side, with all the moving averages acting as resistance points.

Source: TradingView

In addition, Bollinger Bands also reinforce the downside risk, as the price continues to trade near the lower band, indicating increased volatility on the downside. Even though such a position can lead to a sudden change in direction, the absence of buying volume indicates that a continuation risk is high.

Why This Matters

The reaction of the token in this significant weekly resistance level will be worth watching from the perspective of traders’ positioning in the coming sessions.

This will be crucial in determining the sentiment of the entire Layer-1 space as the token moves in the coming sessions.

Also Read: Avalanche (AVAX) Price Targets $100 Amid Institutional Derivatives Growth