Stablecoin Outflows Signal Shift From Crypto To Safe Havens

Investors are rotating away from digital assets, with recent stablecoin outflows underscoring a broader move from crypto into perceived safe havens.

Stablecoin market cap contracts as investors exit crypto

The combined market capitalization of the top 12 stablecoins fell by $2.24 billion over the 10 days through Monday, according to analytics firm Santiment. Notably, this drop in stablecoin market cap coincided with an 8% slide in Bitcoin over the same period, signaling investors are pulling capital out of the ecosystem.

In a January 26, 2026 post on X, Santiment wrote that the shrinking supply of the largest dollar-pegged tokens suggests money is leaving crypto entirely rather than waiting on the sidelines. Moreover, the firm argued that capital appears to be rotating into traditional safe havens such as gold and silver instead of being redeployed into risk assets.

These stablecoin outflows are therefore being read as a sign of risk aversion, with traders preferring to exit into fiat or metals. That said, on-chain data does not yet point to forced selling, but rather a gradual reduction in liquidity that typically precedes weaker price action.

Bitcoin price slides as leveraged positions unwind

Bitcoin traded around $88,400 during Asian hours on Monday, down roughly 4% over the past week. Major tokens including Ether, Solana, XRP and Dogecoin also posted modest losses, reflecting fragile sentiment across the broader crypto complex.

The latest downturn can be traced back to October 10, when more than $19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated in a single session. On that day, Bitcoin plunged from approximately $121,500 to below $103,000, triggering forced deleveraging and margin calls across derivatives venues.

Since that shock, the bitcoin price decline has continued, with the asset now trading nearly 30% below its recent peak. However, derivatives positioning has normalized somewhat, suggesting the current weakness is being driven more by spot selling and the absence of fresh inflows than by cascading liquidations.

Gold and silver rally challenge crypto safe-haven claims

While digital assets struggle, traditional safe havens are surging. Gold prices broke through the $5,000 per ounce barrier for the first time, having gained more than 20% in recent months. Moreover, silver has delivered even stronger performance, more than doubling in market value.

On Monday alone, silver spiked 14% intraday, briefly trading above $117 per ounce. This sharp metals rally has deepened the contrast with Bitcoin, which has failed to keep pace despite its reputation as a digital store of value.

The divergence is putting the crypto safe haven narrative under pressure. Santiment noted that rising demand for gold and silver indicates investors are choosing safety over speculative upside. However, this does not necessarily preclude a future rotation back into crypto if macro conditions stabilize and risk appetite recovers.

Institutional positioning and Tether’s gold purchases

Institutional behavior appears to mirror this defensive shift. Tether, issuer of the dominant US dollar-pegged token, has emerged as one of the largest buyers of gold in recent quarters. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the company purchased 27 metric tons of the metal, worth about $4.4 billion.

These acquisitions underscore how even major players within the crypto ecosystem are hedging exposure with traditional assets. Moreover, they highlight the growing link between digital finance and commodities markets, as stablecoin reserves increasingly blend cash, Treasuries and alternative stores of value.

That said, Santiment emphasized that a sustained crypto rebound will likely require renewed growth in stablecoin supply decline to reverse. A rising aggregate capitalization for dollar-pegged tokens typically signals new money entering exchanges, providing dry powder for future rallies.

Macro drivers: Fed decision and big tech earnings

Macro conditions are also weighing on sentiment. Traders are cautious ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold. The upcoming announcement is viewed as a key test for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

In parallel, several large technology companies are slated to report earnings this week. These results often influence equity indices and overall risk appetite. Moreover, crypto markets have shown a tendency to react to sharp moves in tech stocks, given the shared investor base and high-growth profile.

Analysts say the fed decision impact could determine whether Bitcoin and its peers remain under pressure or find a short-term floor. However, the muted trading volumes observed in recent sessions suggest many investors prefer to wait for clearer signals before committing new capital.

Why stablecoin dynamics matter for crypto recovery

Santiment argues that a durable recovery in digital assets may hinge on a turn in stablecoin total market cap. When the capitalization of leading dollar-pegged tokens stops falling and begins to rise, it typically marks the arrival of fresh capital that can be deployed into Bitcoin, Ether and altcoins.

At present, the ongoing reduction in stablecoin balances is limiting upside across the sector. Bitcoin generally holds up better than smaller tokens during such phases. However, even the largest cryptocurrency struggles to mount a sustained rally when overall liquidity is shrinking.

Smaller and higher-beta assets have borne the brunt of the current downturn, consistent with earlier periods of market stress. Moreover, this pattern fits with a broader investor flight from crypto toward less volatile instruments, from precious metals to major fiat currencies and cash-like instruments.

Outlook: liquidity, sentiment and the path ahead

Market strategists note that whether digital assets can regain momentum will depend more on macro conditions than on crypto-specific headlines. The combination of the Fed’s messaging and big technology earnings could reshape expectations for growth, inflation and risk-taking in the coming weeks.

For now, Bitcoin appears stuck near current levels as traders monitor policy signals and cross-asset volatility. Moreover, until the recent wave of stablecoin outflows stabilizes and reverses, the broader crypto market may struggle to stage more than short-lived relief rallies.

In summary, shrinking stablecoin liquidity, rising safe-haven metals and looming macro catalysts paint a cautious picture for digital assets. A convincing recovery will likely require both a friendlier macro backdrop and clear evidence of fresh capital returning to the crypto ecosystem.