Galaxy Analyst Warns Bitcoin Could Slide Toward $58K

• Onchain data and weak support levels signal Bitcoin could retest the 200-week average near $58K Now.
• Bitcoin ETF outflows and a supply gap between $70K and $80K increase downside risk soon for traders.
• Long-term holder selling has slowed, but weak narratives and macro pressure keep Bitcoin fragileNow.

Bitcoin faces mounting pressure as key metrics point toward further downside. 

Galaxy’s Alex Thorn released a detailed analysis warning that BTC could drift toward $58,000 in the coming weeks. The digital asset dropped 15% between January 28 and January 31, with Saturday alone seeing a brutal 10% plunge. 

Over $2 billion in long positions got liquidated during one of crypto’s largest liquidation events ever.

The weekend selloff pushed Bitcoin as low as $75,644 on Coinbase. That marked a 10% drop below the average cost basis of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs. Nearly half of all Bitcoin supply now sits underwater, according to on-chain data. Holders bought these coins at higher prices than current levels.

Historic Drawdown Patterns Signal More Pain

Bitcoin currently trades 38% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,296. 

Thorn points out a concerning historical pattern. Every Bitcoin drawdown exceeding 40% has extended to at least 50% within three months. The only exception came in 2017.

A 50% drop from the peak would place Bitcoin near $63,000. January closed with four consecutive red monthly candles. That streak hadn’t occurred since 2018.

The 200-week moving average sits around $58,000 and has historically acted as strong support. Thorn notes that Bitcoin lost its 50-week moving average in November 2025. 

Past cycles show that losing this level typically leads to a test of the 200-week average.

ETF Holders Face Mounting Losses

U.S. Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 and attracted $54 billion in net inflows. The products brought new investor classes into the market. However, the past two weeks marked the second and third worst in ETF history.

Combined outflows reached $2.8 billion as investors headed for the exits. Bitcoin now trades below the average ETF cost basis of $84,000. The funds haven’t seen these levels since summer 2024.

Thorn observes that BTC hit a maximum 10% discount to ETF cost basis on Saturday. This level could provide near-term support, though he sees downside risk remaining.

Ownership Gap Between $70K and $80K

Onchain data reveals a supply gap between $70,000 and $80,000. Few coins last moved in this price range. Thorn suggests Bitcoin may drift lower to test demand in this zone.

Meanwhile, 46% of Bitcoin supply currently sits at a loss. Historical bear market bottoms have seen this metric approach 50% or higher. The 2015 and 2018 cycles pushed above 60% of supply underwater.

Long-term holder profit-taking has finally slowed after record selling in 2024 and 2025. These holders distributed an average of $500 million daily throughout 2025. The recent decline in selling could signal an approaching bottom.

Debasement Hedge Narrative Breaks Down

Bitcoin failed to rally alongside gold and silver despite favorable macro conditions. Tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty, and sovereign debt concerns pushed investors toward traditional safe havens. Gold and silver climbed while Bitcoin fell.

Thorn notes this weakness damaged Bitcoin’s narrative as a debasement hedge. The digital asset should theoretically benefit from the current chaotic environment. Instead, capital flowed to time-honored stores of value.

Near-term catalysts remain scarce. The CLARITY Act could provide regulatory clarity, but passage odds have diminished. Any boost from the legislation would likely benefit altcoins more than Bitcoin.

Galaxy’s analysis points to realized price around $56,000 as another key support level. This metric represents the average cost basis for all coins based on their last onchain movement. Both realized price and the 200-week moving average have marked cycle bottoms in the past.

Thorn concludes that these levels could present strong entry points for long-term investors. 

The convergence of multiple support metrics in the high $50,000 range suggests potential stabilization. However, the path lower may extend over several weeks or months as the market searches for a bottom.

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