Solana price falls under $100: Dead-cat bounce coming?

Solana price slid deeper into the red on Feb.4, extending its recent downtrend as sellers continued to press the market.

At press time, SOL was trading near $97, down 6.1% over the past 24 hours. The move leaves Solana sitting near the lower end of its seven-day range between $96 and $127.

Solana (SOL) has dropped 23% over the last week and 31% over the last month. The token is now back to a range that many traders consider critical, having retraced roughly 66% from its peak of $293 in January 2025.

Activity has increased despite the decline. As the price tests support, Solana’s 24-hour spot trading volume increased 32% to $6.55 billion, suggesting increased participation.

Derivatives show a similar trend. CoinGlass data reports futures volume jumping 40% to $17.17 billion, while open interest edged 0.65% higher to $6.48 billion, suggesting traders are adding exposure rather than fully stepping aside.

Network strength contrasts with price pressure

The weakness comes even as Solana’s fundamentals continue to improve. As previously reported by crypto.news, the network processed more than 2.34 billion transactions in January, a 33% increase from the past month and more than Ethereum, Base, and BNB Chain combined.

Institutional interest has also shown signs of growth. While Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded products recorded net outflows in January, U.S. spot Solana ETFs attracted $104 million in inflows, pointing to rising interest from traditional investors during the pullback.

Still, price expectations have been adjusted by some analysts. Standard Chartered recently lowered its 2026 Solana price target to $250 from $310, citing near-term market pressure.

At the same time, the bank raised its longer-term outlook, forecasting SOL at $400 by the end of 2027, $700 by end-2028, $1,200 by end-2029, and $2,000 by 2030. The bank’s analysts argue Solana is positioned to benefit from growth in stablecoin usage and micropayments as it moves beyond a meme-driven phase.

Solana price technical analysis

From a chart perspective, Solana continues to trade in a clear bearish structure. The daily timeframe shows a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows, confirming that sellers still control momentum. The earlier breakdown below the $115–$120 consolidation zone has turned that area into resistance.

Price remains well below the declining daily moving average, now near $121, and repeated attempts to reclaim it have failed. This reinforces the idea that recent rebounds have been corrective rather than trend-changing.

Volatility has expanded to the downside. Strong selling pressure is evident as SOL is trading below the lower Bollinger Band. Although this often puts the market in short-term oversold territory, the absence of a significant reversal indicates that the downside momentum has not yet been completely exhausted.

That view is echoed by momentum indicators. The relative strength index is deep in oversold territory, at 26–28. The likelihood of an instant reversal is low because there isn’t any obvious bullish divergence at this point. In strong downtrends, RSI can remain oversold for extended periods.

The $100 level stands out as the most important near-term line. A sustained close below it would likely expose the $95–$93 zone, followed by a broader support area near $85–$90 if selling intensifies.

On the upside, any rebound is likely to face resistance near $120–$122, where the declining moving average and prior support converge.