NEO Technical Analysis Feb 6

NEO is maintaining its LH/LL structure under general pressure in altcoin markets, with downtrend dominant. If $2.42 support breaks, bearish BOS could be triggered, but a close above $2.81 would question the structure.

Market Structure Overview

NEO’s current market structure is characterized by a clear downtrend. The recently formed lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) pattern confirms the price decline from $3.09 to the $2.42 range. Current price is at $2.77 level with a 24-hour -9.85% drop, positioned below EMA20 ($3.32), reinforcing the bearish short-term structure. Supertrend indicator points to $3.39 resistance level, while RSI at 30.02 is near oversold territory, but MACD’s negative histogram shows downward momentum. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 11 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 2 supports/3 resistances on 1D, 2 supports/1 resistance on 3D, 2 supports/3 resistances on 1W. This structure awaits preservation of lower lows for trend continuation or formation of higher highs for reversal. Market structure analysis tracks HH/HL (bullish) or LH/LL (bearish) tendencies via swing points to identify BOS (Break of Structure) and CHoCH (Change of Character) opportunities. In NEO, LH/LL is currently dominant, meaning strong bearish bias.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

For a bullish trend, a higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) sequence is required. NEO’s latest swing high is $3.1626 (score 61/100); breaking above this and then surpassing $3.39 Supertrend resistance would initiate HH formation. Potential HL at $2.7560 level (score 69/100) could act as support; a rebound from here and close above $2.8137 would signal short-term HL structure. However, remaining below EMA20 weakens bullish signals. Watch for RSI turning up from 30 with divergence formation, but as long as MACD remains bearish, HH/HL sequence stays distant. For trend continuation, $2.9865 and $3.1626 levels need to break sequentially.

Downtrend Risk

Downtrend is clear with LH/LL: Latest lower high $2.8137 (score 73/100), lower low $2.4160 (score 74/100). With price at $2.77 squeezed in this range, a break below $2.7560 confirms LL. 24h range $2.42-$3.09 reflects bearish momentum. BTC downtrend is pressuring altcoins; NEO’s -9.85% drop parallels BTC’s -8%. LH/LL continuation via close below $2.4160 would make CHoCH bearish. In MTF, 1W timeframe with 3 resistances supports downtrend.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

BOS confirms trend change by breaking the current structure. For bearish BOS, critical level is $2.4160 swing low (high score 74/100); close below here breaks structure downward and activates $0.9716 target (score 22). Bullish BOS starts with $2.8137 swing high break; confirmation requires momentum above $2.9865 and $3.1626. $3.39 Supertrend resistance is a major BOS level. CHoCH is an early warning: Holding above $2.81 raises questions in bearish structure; full reversal awaits $3.39 BOS. These levels are verified from 1D/3D MTF and strengthened by volume increase. Traders should wait for BOS confirmation; early entry is risky.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Recent swing highs: $2.8137 (strongest, score 73/100, nearby resistance), $2.9865 (score 62/100, medium-term LH), $3.1626 (score 61/100, weekly resistance). These points define LH formation; price testing and rejecting them sustains downtrend. $2.8137 break is first step for bullish BOS, $3.1626 is major resistance. Swing highs align with fib retracements: 50%-61.8% levels act as resistance.

Recent Swing Lows

Recent swing lows: $2.4160 (score 74/100, main support), $2.7560 (score 69/100, local support). $2.7560 is near current price; hold creates HL potential, break confirms LL and bearish continuation. These levels are strong in 1D/3D MTF, supported by volume profile. Below $2.4160 breaks structure and opens lower targets. Swing lows are ideal for long entries, protected with stop-loss.

Bitcoin Correlation

Altcoins like NEO show high correlation to BTC price action. BTC at $65,664 in downtrend (-8% 24h), key supports $62,910/$60,000; resistances $65,848/$71,040. BTC Supertrend bearish, rising dominance triggers altcoin selling. NEO’s drop parallels BTC; BTC break below $62,910 accelerates NEO $2.4160 BOS. BTC recovery above $65,848 facilitates NEO $2.8137 test. Altcoin traders should prioritize BTC structure: BTC LH/LL continuation strengthens NEO bearish bias.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Overall structural outlook is bearish LH/LL dominant; $2.77 price consolidating between $2.4160-$2.8137. LL break for trend continuation, HH sequence for reversal expected. MTF levels (11 strong points) ready for volatility; RSI oversold but MACD bearish. Detailed data available in NEO Spot Analysis and NEO Futures Analysis. Structure analysis is dynamic: Daily closes determine BOS. Educational note: HH/HL defines uptrend, LH/LL downtrend; BOS provides trade edge. Caution: Market structures change quickly, risk management essential.