S&P Global (SPGI) Stock Drops After Missing Q4 Earnings Estimates

TLDR

• S&P Global (SPGI) shares plunged 7.7% Tuesday following a Q4 earnings miss and disappointing 2026 guidance.
• The company reported adjusted EPS of $4.30, missing the $4.33 consensus estimate.
• Fourth-quarter revenue hit $3.92 billion, up 9% year-over-year and in line with expectations.
• Management forecasts 2026 adjusted EPS of $19.40-$19.65, below the $19.96 Street estimate.
• Analysts expressed concern over slowing Ratings division growth and weaker free cash flow projections.

S&P Global shares took a beating Tuesday after the company delivered mixed fourth-quarter results and cautious 2026 guidance.

The financial data and analytics giant reported adjusted earnings of $4.30 per share for Q4. That came in just below Wall Street’s $4.33 estimate.

Revenue rose 9% year-over-year to $3.92 billion. The figure matched analyst projections exactly.

S&P Global Inc., SPGI

For the full year, S&P Global posted adjusted EPS of $17.83, representing 14% growth. But the company’s forward outlook tells a different story.

Management expects 2026 revenue growth to decelerate to a range of 6.6% to 8.6%. That marks a clear slowdown from recent years.

The 2026 adjusted EPS guidance landed between $19.40 and $19.65 per share. This represents roughly 9.5% growth, down from last year’s 14% expansion.

More problematic for investors, the guidance missed the Street’s $19.96 consensus by a wide margin.

Wall Street Reacts to Weak Outlook

BMO Capital analyst Jeffrey Silber noted the company faced “a higher bar” heading into earnings. He expressed disappointment with the Ratings division outlook.

The Ratings segment is projected to grow just 4-7% on an organic constant currency basis. That fell short of investor expectations for stronger issuance activity in 2026.

Stifel analyst Shlomo Rosenbaum called the results “mixed” and warned of continued pressure on the stock. He flagged lower-than-expected free cash flow as a red flag.

Rosenbaum pointed out that revenue growth projections for three of four operating units came in below previously stated strategic ranges. The guidance also sits beneath medium-term targets shared at the company’s December investor day.

AI Competition Creates Headwinds

The information services sector has faced pressure from AI-powered chatbots. These tools are increasingly designed for financial and legal data applications.

Investors weren’t convinced.

Shares dropped 6.6% in midday trading to $415. Pre-market action saw declines as steep as 18%.

The stock has now entered bear market territory, down over 20% from recent peaks. Competitors MSCI and other financial data providers also traded lower on the day.

The selloff reflects broader concerns about growth prospects in the information services industry. S&P Global’s guidance suggests adjusted earnings will reach $19.40 to $19.65 per share in 2026, with revenue growth between 6.6% and 8.6%.

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