Like most other notable cryptocurrencies, Zcash has struggled mightily as of late, dropping by 42% in the last 30 days. During the crypto market meltdown on February 5, the ZEC price fell all the way down to $189, where buyers finally stepped in to stop the bleeding.
Zcash is trading below key moving averages
Despite the recovery towards the $230 level, Zcash is still trading well below the 200-day moving average (blue line), which currently sits at about $275. The current price is even further removed from the 50-day moving average (orange line), which is currently just above $386.
It’s worth noting that roughly a week ago, popular crypto market analyst Scott Melker highlighted the 200-day moving average as an important level, saying that holding above it would provide good buying opportunities. With the Zcash price decisively slipping beyond the 200-day MA, the privacy coin is in a very uncertain position when it comes to price action.
Shielded supply and mining difficulty signal strength
However, the on-chain data remains robust, as Zcash’s Orchard privacy pool continues displaying strength despite the strong bearish turn in the ZEC market. With slow but steady growth in 2026 so far, roughly 31.5% of the circulating ZEC supply is now shielded.
In a recent post on X, crypto research platform Delphi Digital explained why the growth of the shielded supply is bullish for ZEC:
“As the pool grows, so does the anonymity set and the privacy it provides. Stronger privacy attracts more users, and more users bring more capital. This is already happening in Orchard where the pool has grown to millions of notes.”
At the same time, the difficulty of mining Zcash is hovering around its all-time high, as shown by BitInfoCharts data. This shows that demand for ZEC mining remains strong despite the coin dropping about 67% from its $714 peak reached in November last year.
Zcash mining difficulty since October 2016. Source: BitInfoCharts
Zcash predictions are conflicting as ZEC remains uncertain
Traders on the Polymarket prediction market are somewhat conflicted about Zcash’s 2026 prospects. Currently, bettors are assigning a 49% chance that the Zcash price will drop to $100 this year, and a 31% chance that it will rise to $600. More extreme scenarios aren’t out of the question either, as bettors are currently assigning a 26% chance for a drop all the way down to $50, and a 12% chance that Zcash will hit the $1,000 milestone this year.
However, it’s worth keeping in mind that the volume in this market is $175,000, which is relatively low.
The algorithmic Zcash price prediction on CoinCodex is considerably more bullish, forecasting that a relief rally is in store for ZEC. According to this prediction, the Zcash price is expected to rise all the way back up to $395 within the next three months in a mostly steady rally.
Source: https://coincodex.com/article/81632/zcash-price-prediction-zec-drops-below-key-mas-but-on-chain-data-signals-strength/
