Bottom-Fishing Emerges as $74K Max Pain Resets Bitcoin Outlook

High IV and ETF outflows signal caution despite early dip-buying attempts.

The crypto assets saw another large options expiry on Friday as the market weakness continues. As per onchain reports, roughly $2.9 billion in Bitcoin and Ether contracts expired as prices remained under strain. Derivatives data points to rising caution, while spot flows confirm limited fresh demand. And even though early signs of bottom-fishing have appeared, conviction remains thin.

Bitcoin Max Pain at $74K After $2.5B Options Expiry

As per market data, a total of 38,000 Bitcoin options expired, carrying a notional value of $2.5 billion. Meanwhile, the put-call ratio was 0.71, meaning more traders were betting on further southbound movements.

Maximum pain sat at $74,000, meaning that level would inflict the most losses on options holders. Around 215,000 ETH options also expired, with a notional value of $410 million. ETH posted a higher put-call ratio of 0.82 and a maximum pain level at $2,100.

Options that expired accounted for about 9% of total open interest. Despite sizeable notional value, positioning remains concentrated in later BTC expiries, especially late March and late June. February 13 contracts carried weight, yet they did not dominate overall structure. Therefore, the broader positioning remains largely intact.

Looking at the volatility trend, MarketChameleon data shows Bitcoin implied volatility at 58.9. That places it in the 98th percentile over the past year. Implied volatility has been lower 98% of the time during the last 12 months.

Current readings sit 24% above the 20-day moving average of 47.5. Rising implied volatility means options traders expect bigger price swings ahead, even though the spot market has started to move more slowly.

BTC, ETH Derivatives Signal Caution as Spot ETFs See Fresh Outflows

Puts are still dominating flows, showing traders are hedging for more downside. ETH looks more defensive than BTC, backed by its higher put-call ratio and typically higher volatility profile. 

After the latest sell-off, small pockets of dip-buying have started to show up. Skew is edging higher, and some block trades are rotating into calls. Basically, the positioning suggests selective bounce plays rather than strong conviction in a full trend reversal.

Spot flows continue to reflect a risk-off tone. As per SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $410 million in net outflows on Thursday. Ethereum spot ETFs followed the same pattern, posting $113 million in net outflows and no fresh entries. 

Image Source: SoSoValue

With no new money stepping in, institutional players appear to be reducing exposure rather than building positions.

For now, the market structure still leans bearish. Although heavy selling has slowed, traders remain cautious. The high implied volatility, steady ETF outflows, and defensive options positioning show caution remains in play. Although prices may stabilize, a stronger move higher will likely require fresh inflows and calmer volatility.

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