Bitcoin rally may be a dead-cat bounce, warns market expert

The Bitcoin (BTC) price rebound from $63,500 to a local high of $74,123 could be a dead-cat bounce, according to one crypto market expert.

Specifically, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX cryptocurrency exchange, via his X account on March 4, 2026, noted that BTC price has closely mirrored the fractal pattern of major indexes focused on Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) United States in the past year.

The correlation of Bitcoin price in the past years to the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF and the Nasdaq-100 index was the basis of Hayes’ argument. 

BTC price overlayed to the NDX Index and the IGV U.S. Equity. Source: X

Bitcoin buyers are cautioned of a potential bull trap

As Finbold reported, on-chain data shows Bitcoin whales and sharks have already turned bullish through aggressive accumulation. Additionally, Bitcoin’s Open Interest (OI) has rebounded from $44 billion to about $49.8 billion in the past two days, signaling a renewed capital inflow to its derivatives and futures markets.

BTC OI since Feb 16. Source: CoinGlass

With Bitcoin’s funding rate having turned positive amid the ongoing rebound, it is safe to assume that more derivatives traders are leaning towards bullishness. As such, Hayes has cautioned all the BTC buyers of another capitulation before the bear market bottom is formed.

“It could be a dead cat bounce. We aren’t in the clear yet. Be patient,” the co-founder stated.

What’s next for the BTC price?

The idea of a potential bull trap in Bitcoin has gained traction among trading experts in the past few days. Furthermore, BTC price has been trapped in a macro bear market, akin to 2022, since the October 11, 2025 crypto crash, which wiped out over $19 billion from leveraged traders.

From a technical analysis standpoint, BTC price was expected to strengthen amid the ongoing Middle East crisis, according to Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into the Cryptoverse.

BTC YTD ROI. Source: X

However, the Bitcoin bullish camp has been arguing that capital rotation from gold is at hand after its recent parabolic rally amid the crypto regulatory clarity in the United States.