PYTH Technical Analysis Mar 13

[ENGLISH: PYTH is maintaining the LH/LL structure while continuing its downtrend and is being tested at critical supports. For a structure change, BOS above $0.0522 is awaited; otherwise, downside targets activate.]

Market Structure Overview

PYTH’s current market structure reflects a clear downtrend. The price is forming lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) instead of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL), strengthening its bearish character. 11 strong levels were identified across daily and weekly timeframes: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 2 supports/0 resistances on 3D, 2 supports/4 resistances on 1W. This indicates a dominant resistance layer on the upside. Supertrend is giving a bearish signal, and as long as the price remains below EMA20 ($0.05), the short-term bearish outlook prevails. RSI at 46 is neutral, MACD histogram is balanced around zero but momentum is inclined toward downside. Current price at $0.05 level, with a slight recovery of +1.91% in 24 hours, but the overall structure remains intact. The market is moving in line with BTC’s downtrend, creating a risky environment for altcoins.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

No HH/HL structure is observed prior to an uptrend. In recent months, the price has failed to surpass previous swing highs ($0.0522, $0.0499), confirming them as LH. For potential bullish continuation, a close above $0.0522 (score:69/100) and formation of a new HL is required. A BOS (Break of Structure) above this level with a move above EMA20 could signal CHoCH (Change of Character). However, at the current $0.05 price, these signals are absent; RSI at 46 is not oversold, just neutral. Bullish target $0.0673 (score:25), but requires resistance breakout first.

Downtrend Risk

Downtrend is strong with LH/LL: Recent swing lows at $0.0468 and $0.0445 (both score:67/100) form LL. As price approaches these supports, bearish momentum may increase. LHs at $0.0522 and $0.0499 were rejected. Supertrend resistance stands at $0.06. Bearish breakdown target $0.0252 (score:22), triggered by BOS below $0.0468. MACD is neutral but histogram carries negative shift risk. This structure fits the classic downtrend definition: Each new high is lower than the previous high, each low lower than the previous low.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

Structure break levels are critical: For bullish BOS, a daily close above $0.0522 (main swing high) is required. This invalidates the last LH, provides opportunity for HL formation, and breaks the downtrend structure. Additional confirmation by surpassing $0.06 Supertrend resistance. Conversely, bearish BOS forms below $0.0468 (swing low); this confirms LL and opens the path to $0.0445. Breaking the 1W resistance layer (around $0.0522) in MTF is difficult, while supports are strong on 3D/1W. Volume increase is expected before CHoCH. These levels define trend change: Without BOS, the structure continues.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

The most critical swing high is $0.0522 (score:69/100), the last LH and main resistance. This level represents the ceiling of the downtrend; surpassing it provides a return to HH. Second is $0.0499 (score:64/100), short-term resistance. As these points are rejected, LH confirmation is obtained, increasing bearish bias. Importance: These swings are used as BOS levels.

Recent Swing Lows

Recent swing lows $0.0468 and $0.0445 (score:67/100) form the base of the LL structure. $0.0468 is the current support; its break opens bearish targets ($0.0252). These levels align with MTF supports (1D/3D). Importance: If held, HL opportunity; if broken, trend continues.

Bitcoin Correlation

PYTH is a highly correlated altcoin with BTC; BTC is in a downtrend at $70,745 (Supertrend bearish). BTC supports at $69,067 / $65,618 / $60,000; breaks trigger broad downside in altcoins. Resistances $70,750 / $72,903 / $75,614; if BTC cannot hold above this resistance, PYTH may slip below $0.0468. BTC dominance is rising; BTC stabilization is required for altcoin rally. Monitor BTC levels for PYTH Spot Analysis and PYTH Futures Analysis.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Overall structure is bearish: LH/LL dominant, consolidation below EMA20 at $0.05. For continuation, hold $0.0468; on break, target $0.0252. Bullish scenario with $0.0522 BOS toward $0.0673. Market is volatile, MTF resistance weight elevates downside risk. Monitor structures: Wait for BOS, confirm CHoCH with volume. Educational note: Market structure is measured with swings; HH/HL defines uptrend, LH/LL downtrend. BOS invalidates structure. Note: No news, but BTC is influential.