XRP Is Forming Important Pattern on the Monthly Chart: Here is Why Crypto Analyst Sets $22 as the Full Target

A decade-long structure is developing on XRP’s monthly chart. The pattern has a clear trigger level, a measured move target, and a specific invalidation zone.

The Pattern and Where XRP Sits Within It

Analyst EGRAG CRYPTO published a monthly XRP chart on Bitstamp on March 21, identifying a macro W formation spanning from the 2017 to 2018 cycle through the current period. The W pattern is a two-leg structure where the first leg completes a bottom, price recovers to a neckline, pulls back to form a second bottom, then breaks out above the neckline before expanding toward a measured move target.

At the time of the chart, XRP was trading at $1.44355, up 4.87% on the session. The first leg of the W formation is complete, anchored in the multi-year base that developed through 2019 to 2023. The breakout above the pattern’s neckline occurred in late 2024 and into early 2025, with price pushing above the $2.00 level and extending toward the $3.32 area marked on the chart as the first measured resistance. The current setup is the pullback phase, with price having retraced from that $3.32 level back toward the $1.60 breakout zone.

The inset on the left side of the chart shows a prior smaller-scale version of the same pattern from the 2014 to 2017 cycle, with the breakout, pullback, and bullish hammer candle annotated. The current chart labels a bullish hammer candle forming at the $1.44 level during the pullback, drawing a direct structural parallel to that prior setup.

The Key Levels

EGRAG CRYPTO identifies $1.60 to $1.80 as the zone where the structure remains intact. Holding above that area during the current pullback keeps the W formation valid and the expansion phase available. The red horizontal line on the chart sits at $2.00142, which the analyst designates as the confirmation level. Reclaiming and accepting price above $2.00 opens the path toward $3.32, the green horizontal line on the chart, and higher targets beyond it.

The $3.32 level represents the first measured resistance from the breakout. Above that, the analyst’s measured move projection from the full W pattern width points toward $22, marked at the top right of the chart with a yellow horizontal line. That target aligns with what EGRAG CRYPTO describes as neck resistance from the macro structure, historical expansion multiples from prior XRP cycles, and macro cycle behavior patterns.

The invalidation zone sits at $1.40 to $1.20. Losing that range on a closing basis would break the current pullback structure and indicate the breakout has failed rather than consolidated. Failing to reclaim $2.00 with follow-through is the secondary invalidation signal, as weak price action at that level would suggest the expansion phase is not developing as the pattern implies.

Probability Assessment

EGRAG CRYPTO provides a tiered probability breakdown rather than presenting the $22 target as a single outcome. Full W pattern completion reaching $22 carries a 25% to 35% probability in the analyst’s assessment. A partial expansion into the $3.00 to $8.00 range carries 50% to 60% probability, representing the more likely outcome if the structure holds. Failure or a deeper reset carries 10% to 15% probability.

That distribution is the honest framing of a pattern with a compelling structure but a high target. The $22 projection is possible within the measured move logic and consistent with prior cycle expansion behavior from comparable W formations. It requires time, sustained structural integrity above the key levels, and confirmation at each stage before the next leg becomes available.

What Needs to Happen First

The sequence EGRAG CRYPTO identifies is sequential rather than simultaneous. The current priority is holding the $1.44 to $1.60 zone during the pullback. The hammer candle forming at current levels is the structural signal that the pullback may be completing. Reclaiming $2.00 is the first confirmation. Acceptance above $3.32 opens the path toward the larger targets. Each step requires the prior one to hold.

At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $1.44, approximately 10% below the $1.60 structural support level and 39% below the $2.00 confirmation trigger.

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