Trump Tells Iran to “Get Serious Before It’s Too Late” as Markets Drop

TLDR

• The S&P 500 fell 0.8%, the Nasdaq dropped over 1%, and the Dow slid 0.5% on Thursday
• Brent crude jumped above $107 a barrel as the US-Iran conflict continued with no ceasefire in sight
• President Trump warned Iran to “get serious” or face consequences, calling their public stance dismissive
• Bitcoin, XRP, and Ethereum also dropped as the war weighed on crypto markets
• Initial jobless claims came in at 210,000, exactly in line with expectations

US stocks fell on Thursday as hopes for a quick end to the US-Iran war faded. The S&P 500 dropped 0.8%, the Nasdaq Composite lost more than 1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell around 244 points at the open.

The selloff reversed gains from earlier in the week, when markets had rallied on hopes of a potential ceasefire. Those hopes faded fast as both sides continued to trade strikes and failed to reach an agreement.

Oil prices surged on the back of the unresolved conflict. Brent crude futures jumped 4.9% to $107.32 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 4.2% to $94.07 a barrel.

Two days remain in the US pause on strikes against Iranian power plants. The sides have not agreed on a ceasefire, and fresh strikes were launched by both Tehran and Tel Aviv on Thursday.

Prediction market odds for a resolution by end of April dropped from 50% to 38% since the start of the week, according to Jeffrey deGraaf of Renaissance Macro Research.

Recession Fears and Market Rotation

Oil prices have now risen 31% since the start of hostilities. The S&P 500 has declined 5% over the same period, according to Jonathan Golub, chief equity strategist at Seaport Global.

Golub noted that the war pushed hedge funds to reduce their risk exposure. Tech and financials moved back into favor, while industrials, materials, staples, and health care lost ground.

Fears of a US recession are growing as higher oil prices threaten to push up costs for consumers and businesses. Markets are also watching how the Federal Reserve will respond to the oil spike in its upcoming policy decisions.

Crypto Also Hit by War Uncertainty

Bitcoin, XRP, and Ethereum all dropped Thursday as the ongoing conflict weighed on risk assets broadly. Crypto markets tend to move with broader sentiment, and the war uncertainty pulled prices lower.

The drop in digital assets came alongside the equity selloff, reflecting a wide retreat from riskier investments.

On the jobs front, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 210,000 initial jobless claims for last week. That matched economist forecasts exactly.

Gold and silver also fell on Thursday, as shifting sentiment around the US-Iran talks unsettled precious metals markets.

Brent crude held above $100 a barrel in afternoon trading, with West Texas Intermediate pulling back slightly from its earlier high to around $93.33.

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