Harvard economist says his $100 Bitcoin prediction was a wrong call

Key Takeaways

• Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff admitted his 2018 prediction that Bitcoin would fall to $100 was incorrect.
• Rogoff underestimated Bitcoin’s global utility and the regulatory environment around cryptocurrencies.

In 2018, Kenneth Rogoff said Bitcoin was more likely to sink to $100 than ever reach $100,000 over a decade.

The Harvard economist, who previously argued that Bitcoin’s use was primarily limited to illicit activities, on Tuesday admitted that he had made a wrong call.

The former IMF chief economist added that he underestimated Bitcoin’s role as a transaction medium in the $20 trillion underground economy and didn’t foresee regulators, including top officials, openly holding large crypto holdings despite clear conflicts of interest.

In a 2018 interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Rogoff anticipated that a global regulatory crackdown on Bitcoin would drive prices down and expected limited adoption as a real payment method.

Bitcoin was trading at around $11,242 when Rogoff made his call. Instead of collapsing to $100, the digital asset has surged past $100,000 in under a decade.

At press time, Bitcoin was changing hands above $113,200, up about 907% since Rogoff’s bearish prediction, according to TradingView.