‘One Battle After Another,’ ‘Sinners’ Lead Oscar Nomination Prediction Market Bets

Topline

Online bettors have waged millions on which movies will earn nominations at the Academy Awards this week, with blockbuster “Sinners,” action thriller “One Battle After Another” and ping-pong drama “Marty Supreme” predicted to rack up nominations in many of the top categories.

Teyana Taylor won a Golden Globe for her role in “One Battle After Another.” (Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)

Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

Key Facts

“One Battle After Another,” “Sinners” and “Hamnet” are among the films most likely to capture nominations in top categories at the Oscars later this week, according to bets waged by users on online prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi.

Strong odds for “One Battle After Another” follow its leading four wins at the Golden Globe Awards earlier this month, which are typically a bellwether of success at the Academy Awards.

Prediction markets have recently become more popular in determining awards winners, and Polymarket inked a partnership with the Golden Globes earlier this year to display real-time odds during the ceremony.

Best Picture

Three movies on Polymarket have odds of 100% to earn a Best Picture nomination: “One Battle After Another,” “Hamnet” and “Marty Supreme.” Rounding out the ten possible nomination slots on Polymarket are “Sinners” (99% odds), “Frankenstein” (98%), “Sentimental Value” (97%), “Bugonia” (90%), “The Secret Agent” (84%), “Train Dreams” (79%) and “It Was Just An Accident” (64%). On Kalshi, where the betting volume exceeds $7 million, users have landed on an identical top 10. Leading with 99% odds are “Marty Supreme,” “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners,” while “Frankenstein” (98%), “Hamnet” (98%) and “Sentimental Value” (97%) also have near-perfect odds.

Best Director

Both Polymarket and Kalshi bettors have settled on the same exact top five: Paul Thomas Anderson (“One Battle After Another”), Ryan Coogler (“Sinners”), Joachim Trier (“Sentimental Value”), Chloé Zhao (“Hamnet”) and Josh Safdie (“Marty Supreme”). Anderson has the best odds on both prediction markets, with a 100% shot for a nomination on Kalshi and a 99% chance according to Polymarket. Just outside the top five are Guillermo del Toro (“Frankenstein”) and Jafar Panahi (“It Was Just An Accident”), who rank sixth and seventh on both Polymarket and Kalshi, respectively.

Best Actor

Golden Globe winner Timothée Chalamet has the best odds for a Best Actor nomination for his performance in “Marty Supreme,” with Polymarket bettors giving him a 100% shot and Kalshi predictors giving him 99% odds for a nomination. Also earning very high odds on both platforms are Leonardo DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”), who has a 100% chance on Polymarket and a 98% shot according to Kalshi, and Michael B. Jordan (“Sinners”), who has 95% odds on both platforms. The rest of the top five are less certain: Wagner Moura, star of “The Secret Agent,” has 87% odds on both platforms, while “Blue Moon” star Ethan Hawke has 77% odds on Polymarket and a 74% chance on Kalshi. Just outside the top five is “Bugonia” actor Jesse Plemons, who has a 35% chance on Polymarket and a 38% chance on Kalshi.

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley (“Hamnet”) and Rose Byrne (“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”), who earlier this month won the Best Actress Golden Globes for drama and comedy, respectively, have near-perfect odds of a nomination, according to both Polymarket and Kalshi. Norwegian actress Renate Reinsve (“Sentimental Value”) ranks third on both platforms, with 93% odds on Polymarket and 94% odds on Kalshi. Emma Stone (“Bugonia”) ranks fourth on both platforms with 89% odds, but Polymarket bettors have Kate Hudson (“Song Sung Blue”) in fifth place with 40% odds, while Kalshi bettors give Chase Infiniti (“One Battle After Another”) a 72% chance for a nomination.

Best Supporting Actor

Both Polymarket and Kalshi predict the same five nominees, with more than 90% odds for each: Stellan Skarsgard (“Sentimental Value”), Jacob Elordi (“Frankenstein”), Sean Penn (“One Battle After Another”), Benicio del Toro (“One Battle After Another”) and Paul Mescal (“Hamnet”). Just outside the top five on each platform are “Sinners” actors Miles Caton (21% odds on Kalshi and 19% odds on Polymarket) and Delroy Lindo (9% Kalshi odds and 8% Polymarket odds).

Best Supporting Actress

Two actresses have higher than 95% odds for a nomination on Polymarket and Kalshi: Teyana Taylor (“One Battle After Another”) and Amy Madigan (“Weapons”). Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (“Sentimental Value”) ranks third on both, with a 90% chance on Polymarket and an 89% chance on Kalshi. With slightly lower odds, “Sinners” actress Wunmi Mosaku ranks fourth on both websites, with 79% odds on Polymarket and 78% odds on Kalshi. Ranking fifth on Polymarket is Ariana Grande (“Wicked: For Good”) with 47% odds, while fifth place on Kalshi is Odessa A’zion (“Marty Supreme”) with a 53% chance.

When Are The Oscar Nominations Announced?

This year’s Oscar nominations will be announced Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EST, streamed live on the Academy’s website and social media channels. Actors Lewis Pullman and Danielle Brooks, the latter of whom earned an Oscar nomination in 2024, will announce the nominations.

When Are The Academy Awards?

The 98th Oscars will take place on March 15 at 7 p.m. EST. The ceremony will air live on ABC and simultaneously stream live on Hulu. Comedian Conan O’Brien will return for a second straight ceremony as host.

What To Watch For

Which movie will rack up the most nominations—and whether any movie will earn 14 or more, tying or breaking the longstanding record of the most nominations in a single year. Some awards pundits have suggested either “One Battle After Another” or “Sinners” could break the record, as both movies are expected to earn nominations in many top categories. Variety projected “Sinners” would earn 15 nominations, while The New York Times said both “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another” have a shot at breaking the record. The record has stood for 75 years since “All About Eve” earned 14 nominations in 1951, and two other movies—“Titanic” (1997) and “La La Land” (2016)—have since tied it.