Bitcoin Technical Analysis February 10: $69,000 Defense in Play – Bottom Forming vs. Gold/Stocks?
The Bitcoin bulls are fighting to cling on to the major $69,000 horizontal support level. With this level as the top of the 2021 bull market, holding it will be crucial. At the same time as Bitcoin potentially forms a bottom against USD, BTC is also possibly finding bottoms against other major assets. Is this a further sign of a possible reversal to the upside?
Sideways consolidation after major bounce
Source: TradingView
Looking at $BTC against USD in the short-term time frame it can be seen that the price is chopping sideways after the last big bounce. After such a strong upside move the price did need to consolidate, and that certainly looks to be what it’s doing.
Extending the trendlines out from the bottom of the falling wedge it can be noted that the price is holding one of these trendlines as resistance, with the Fibonacci 0.382 level also providing a barrier to further upside movement.
What does need to be borne in mind is that there is a CME gap that would likely be filled at around $84,500. Therefore, this would entail $BTC moving up past the 0.786 Fibonacci level, which is around this price.
Indicator reaches low last recorded at Covid crash
Source: TradingView
The daily chart highlights how the $BTC price broke out of the falling wedge but then crashed out of a bear flag and even broke down beneath the major support level.
Fortunately for the bulls, they were able to push the price back above the crucial $69,000 level, and now the price is consolidating there. If there is to be perhaps one more big flush downwards, the $53,000 support level could be where the price goes to.
That said, the Relative Strength Index shows the indicator recently rising from a severely oversold level. The last time this level was reached was in the depths of the Covid crash, so this is perhaps a pretty good signal that a bottom has also been reached this time.
Lowest RSI level on record for BTC against gold
Source: TradingView
Comparing the ratio of BTC to gold, one can see that it is currently at around 13 ounces - very low considering that the last high was above 41 ounces. While it looks like a good support level has been found, if one looks at the RSI in the weekly time frame, a level of 23.00 is the lowest on record.
Lowest low against AI chip manufacturers
Source: TradingView
The ratio of BTC to the SMH is also enlightening. The SMH is the ETF for the major chip manufacturers such as NVDA and AMD, aka the AI play. Here it can be noted that the ratio has come down to the major trendline, while there is the possibility perhaps of a bit more downside to the 0.786 Fibonacci level. Nevertheless, the RSI is also showing its lowest level in the history of this pairing.
Time for bravery and conviction?
This isn’t just the case for a couple of assets, it’s the case more or less across the board of metals and stocks. Bitcoin has reached a bottom just about everywhere. If it goes much lower from here, could it be heading for zero? Many analysts would deny this possibility, so the only other option is that a bottom is either in or very close. Is this the time for bravery and conviction?
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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