Why the On-Chain AI Agent Economy Hasn’t Taken Off Yet

As blockchain technology and artificial intelligence continue to converge, x402—a standard that enables AI agents to execute automated on-chain payments—was expected to serve as a gateway to the emerging Agent Economy.

However, recent data shows a sharp decline in x402 transaction volume. This trend has raised doubts about whether the initial hype faded only months after its rapid rise.

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x402 Transactions Down More Than 92%

According to a report from Artemis, the concept of x402 “agent payments” may currently be more illusion than reality. While tools such as OpenClaw, Moltbook, and specialized agent wallets are spreading rapidly across social media and developer communities, on-chain data tells a very different story.

In December 2025, x402 averaged approximately 731,000 transactions per day. By February 2026, daily transactions fell to around 57,000. This represents a decline of more than 92% from the peak.

Charts from Artemis clearly illustrate this drop across networks such as Base, Polygon PoS, and Solana.

Lucas, an on-chain payments specialist at Artemis, provided further insight. By examining transaction declines by category, he identified a sharp contraction in the “Infrastructure & Utilities” segment as the primary direct cause.

Activity from services such as x402secure.com, agentlisa.ai, and pay.codenut.ai dropped by more than 80% from previous highs. These platforms serve as critical infrastructure bridges, enabling smooth, reliable x402 payments for agents. Meanwhile, demand has yet to materialize.

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Despite the negative data, many analysts continue to express optimism about the long-term future of an agent-based economy.

Signals Pointing to a Future Agent Economy Boom

Looking further ahead, analysts envision a new economic system in which AI agents become independent economic entities. These agents would be capable of acting autonomously, making decisions, transacting, and generating value without constant human oversight.

Analyst Stacy Muur highlighted three key signals supporting this vision:

• The OpenClaw framework has surpassed 180,000 GitHub stars, indicating strong community interest. This is an open-source, autonomous AI assistant that can monitor wallets, automate airdrops, and participate in prediction markets.
• Moltbook, the first social network designed exclusively for AI agents, has already attracted nearly 2.5 million agents.
• ERC-8004, a new token standard designed for decentralized AI agents, is ready for deployment on the Ethereum mainnet, bringing this vision closer to reality.

From an investment perspective, however, projects within the x402 ecosystem listed on CoinGecko have yet to demonstrate notable price performance. The sector’s total market capitalization exceeds $6.7 billion, but Chainlink (LINK) alone accounts for more than $6 billion. Most remaining projects have market capitalizations below $100 million.

Broad market selling pressure and prevailing fear have caused investors to overlook the positive fundamentals of the x402 and AI Agent ecosystem. Under more favorable market sentiment, these factors could potentially give rise to new billion-dollar crypto projects.