Will XRP crash below $1 after plunging below cost basis?

XRP is flashing fresh warning signs after slipping below a key on-chain threshold, raising fears that the token could fall under $1 for the first time since November 2024.

At press time on February 10, XRP was trading at $1.41, below its estimated holder cost basis, after losing 25% since the start of 2026.

The dire outlook is exacerbated by the fact that the entire cryptocurrency market has lost, in a matter of weeks, hundreds of billions in value, while Bitcoin (BTC) appears unable to hold above $70,000.

Despite the bearish sentiment, XRP’s recent performance might also be hiding indications that the crash is, for the token, over and that its next significant movement might be upward.

Why an XRP rally could be in the cards for February

Specifically, thanks to the cryptocurrency’s price drop, its ‘Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)’ has fallen below a value of 1, creating a situation in which supply is lower and upward pressure is stronger.

Indeed, as outlined in Renato Shirakashi’s – the creator of the indicator – 2019 article, SOPR is described as based on human psychology and the tendency of traders to try to avoid selling at a loss.

With XRP changing hands below its cost basis, investors are likely to be reluctant to sell unless they believe a continued, long-term crash is imminent. 

The case for the token to remain level is also strengthened by the fact that the cryptocurrency is trading above its nearest support zone of $1.39, and as long as the situation remains unchanged, relative stability can be expected with some confidence.

Still, it is also worth noting that even if SOPR hints at a rally being more likely than a crash, XRP’s very next move could very well be downward as supply increases and bullish pressure eases.

Whether or not this proves to be the case might ultimately rest with the remainder of the cryptocurrency market and, arguably, with Bitcoin. Should investors regain confidence that the digital bull market is resuming, it is likely there will be significant accumulation, helping XRP strive higher and above its resistance zone between $1.47 and $1.56.

Such a bull case is also indirectly supported by institutional investors like Bernstein, which issued a note on Monday, February 9, describing the current BTC bear case as weak, and giving a 2026 Bitcoin price forecast of $150,000.

Elsewhere, there is a danger that any upcoming upward movement for XRP will be nothing more than a trap, leaving buyers holding a bag. Despite Bernstein’s note, the mood among cryptocurrency investors is, at press time, more fearful than anything, and that could easily be the deciding factor given how notoriously susceptible digital assets are to sentiment.