Will TRUMP token fall further after 95% crash from ATH?

Official Trump [TRUMP] made its all-time high before U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration on the 20th of January, 2025. Since then, the Solana [SOL] based memecoin has been making new lows, with brief periods of respite when the wider market rallies.

The latest such bounce came in the first week of 2026. Since the 14th of January, TRUMP witnessed a 42.5% drawdown and was trading at $3.32 at the time of writing. This represented an 95.5% fall from its $73.43 ATH last year.

The reasons for TRUMP’s drawdown

In three weeks, Bitcoin [BTC] has faced a 24.9% price drop. The Congressional investigation into Trump-backed World Liberty Financial [WLFI] after reports of links with foreign sovereign capital has also impacted the Official Trump market sentiment.

The market structure remained bearish on the 1-day timeframe. The OBV has made new lows after the early January bounce, highlighting strong selling volume. The daily RSI has been hovering around 20 since last Thursday, showing extreme oversold conditions.

The extent of the TRUMP bounce depends on…

The imbalance zone between $3.57 and $4.09 (white box) was the first target for a potential price bounce, and it is likely to act as a short‑term supply area. A retest of $4.40 or $4.72 could trigger the next bearish move.

On the other hand, a strong Bitcoin rally above $74k might lift the memecoin as high as $5.19. However, at the time of writing, this scenario seems less likely given the negligible buying pressure.

Should traders wait for the bounce?

Memecoins tend to exhibit amplified volatility when the market sentiment shifts in the short-term. It is possible this can take TRUMP higher than expected. Hence, traders can wait for a rejection from the local resistances outlined before looking to short the bounce.

In the coming weeks, new lows below $3.02 can be expected, prolonging its year-long downtrend.

Final Thoughts

• Official Trump was negatively affected by the market-wide sell-off and the World Liberty Financial investigation and faced intense selling.
• A short-term bounce toward $4.4-$4.7 is possible, followed by continued downward momentum.

Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion.