Next week's macro outlook: Non-agricultural data is coming, Trump continues to "play" with the entire market
PANews reported on June 28 that at the beginning of this week, the US dollar rose due to news of US intervention in the Israeli-Iranian conflict, but with the signing of the ceasefire agreement, market sentiment improved, and the US dollar gave up all its gains and fell below 97, hitting a new low since March 2022. Looking ahead to next week, traders will pay close attention to the US PMI data and the non-farm payroll report, which will be released early on Thursday due to the holiday. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:
Monday 21:45, US Chicago PMI for June;
At 22:00 on Monday, Atlanta Fed President Bostic will give a speech on the outlook for the U.S. economy;
At 01:00 on Tuesday, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will deliver a speech;
At 21:30 on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will participate in a group meeting;
At 22:00 on Tuesday, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for June, JOLTs job vacancies for May, and the monthly rate of construction spending for May;
At 20:30 on Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending June 21, the unemployment rate in June, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in June, and the trade account in May;
At 21:45 on Thursday, the final value of the US S&P Global Services PMI for June will be released;
At 23:00 on Thursday, Atlanta Fed President Bostic will deliver a speech on US monetary policy.
For the June nonfarm payrolls report, the market expects the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.2% and the number of employed people to fall to 129,000 from the previous increase of 139,000. Other labor market data, such as the JOLTs job openings data for May will be released next Tuesday, while the ADP private employment report for June will be released next Wednesday. If the ISM data next week also paints a similar picture, investors may scale back their rate cut bets, especially if the nonfarm payrolls continue to show a healthy labor market. As the market gradually adjusts to the idea that the Fed may be patient before resuming the process of rate cuts, the dollar may rebound.
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